Friday, 5 Dec 2014 - AMC

Market made a good start after a better than expected employment data. However, the market remains  cautious after making a new high as there seems to be some profit taking in the second half of the trading session. Financial sector has been the leading the market on Friday specifically Goldman Sachs and Visa.  

Market Summary

Industry Watch

Strong: Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, Materials, Health Care

Weak: Consumer Staples, Energy, Technology, Utilities, Telecom Services

Other Market Moving Factor:

• November Nonfarm Payrolls surge past estimates (321,000; Briefing.com consensus 230,000): Treasuries slide
• Dollar Index climbs to highest level since early 2009

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow (+0.3%), Nasdaq (+0.2%), and S&P 500 (+0.2%) ended the Friday session near their flat lines, allowing the benchmark index to register its seventh consecutive weekly advance. The S&P 500 added 0.4% for the week, while the Russell 2000 (+0.8%) outperformed to extend its weekly gain to 0.7%. Also of note, the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed slightly today, but still ended the week in the red (-0.2%). 

Prior to the open, the Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed the addition of 321,000 jobs in November while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 230,000. Although the data point came in well ahead of estimates, the stock market struggled for direction before following the financial sector (+1.0%) higher. Outside of financials, only the health care sector (+0.8%) was able to add more than 0.3%. As for the broader market, the S&P 500 notched its high just ahead of noon ET and slipped from that level into the close. 

The lack of broad strength following a solid jobs report was a reflection of concerns that the Fed may be inclined to hike the fed funds rate sooner than the market expected. These concerns showed up in the Dollar Index (89.34, +0.64) and the Treasury market with the 10-yr note diving to send the benchmark yield higher by seven basis points to 2.31%. At the front of the curve, the 2-yr yield climbed nine basis points to 0.64%. 

Conversely, higher Treasury yields contributed to the strength in the financial sector, which is poised to benefit from improved net interest margins of banks. If rates rise at the short end of the Treasury yield curve that would allow banks to charge higher interest on loans while deposit rates would likely remain close to where they are now. Top-weighted sector members rallied across the board with Dow componentsJPMorgan Chase (JPM 62.70, +1.32) and Goldman Sachs (GS 195.45, +3.50) spiking 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively, while the sector ended the week ahead of the remaining nine groups (+1.8%). 

Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical sectors settled closer to their flat lines. Consumer discretionary (+0.3%) and industrials (+0.2%) registered modest gains while energy (-1.2%), materials (-0.1%), and technology (-0.2%) ended in the red. 

The industrial sector was underpinned by defense and transport stocks. The PHLX Defense Index rose 0.6% while the Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 0.4%. 

Elsewhere, the discretionary sector received support from restaurants, homebuilders, and media names while retailers underperformed after American Eagle Outfitters (AEO 11.91, -1.90), Big Lots (BIG 40.00, -7.95), and Five Below (FIVE 37.61, -5.24) disappointed with their results or guidance. Gap (GPS 40.74, +0.18) bucked the trend, climbing 0.4%, after reporting better than expected same store sales for November, but the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 92.43, -0.30) shed 0.3%. 

Also of note, the top-weighted technology sector spun its wheels throughout the day as large cap components weighed while chipmakers rallied after Freescale Semiconductor (FSL 24.79, +1.36) was upgraded to ‘Buy' from ‘Hold' at Evercore ISI. Shares of FSL jumped 5.8% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index settled higher by 1.0%. 

Chipmakers helped the Nasdaq Composite finish a little ahead of the broader market while biotechnology also chipped in with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 308.81, +2.61) climbing 0.9%. In turn, the strength helped the health care sector (+0.8%) register a solid gain. 

On the downside, the energy sector (-1.2%) was pressured by a 1.8% decline in crude oil ($66.75/bbl) while the rate-sensitive utilities sector (-0.8%) lagged as Treasury yields climbed. 

Today's participation was a bit below average with 738 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included nonfarm payrolls, trade balance, factory orders, and consumer credit: 

• Nonfarm payrolls increased by 321,000 in November, up from an upwardly revised 243,000 (from 214,000), while the Briefing.com consensus expected nonfarm payrolls to add 230,000 new jobs 
  • That was the biggest increase in payrolls since 360,000 jobs were added in January 2012 
  • Private payrolls increased by 314,000 in November after adding an upwardly revised 236,000 (from 209,000) in October. The consensus expected 228,000 new private jobs 
  • Obviously, a three-handle jobs gain is impressive, which tells us that there was still a considerable amount of people unemployed who were looking for jobs 
    • However, those who already had jobs were able to demand a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings, which suggests that the number of available qualified workers is diminishing, thus forcing employers to pay their workers more money to keep them at their current job 
    • Gains in hourly earnings and the average workweek led to a 0.9% increase in aggregate wages, which was the largest increase since 2006 
  • The unemployment rate held at 5.8%, as expected 
• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in October, falling from an upwardly revised $43.60 billion (from $43.00 billion) in September to $43.40 billion while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to $42.00 billion 
  • The goods deficit was virtually unchanged at $62.70 billion while the services surplus increased to $19.20 billion from $19.10 billion 
• Factory orders declined 0.7% in October after declining an upwardly revised 0.5% (from -0.6%) while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3% 
  • The large downside surprise resulted from weaker oil prices, which caused a 6.5% decline in petroleum refinery orders. This led to a 1.5% decline in nondurable goods orders after those orders declined only 0.2% in September 
• The Consumer Credit report for October showed an increase of $13.20 billion, which was lower than the Briefing.com consensus estimate of $16.50 billion 

Monday's session will be free of economic data. 

Week in Review: S&P 500 Posts Seventh Weekly Gain 

The major averages began December on a lower note with relative weakness among cyclical sectors keeping the market under pressure throughout the Monday session. The Nasdaq Composite (-1.3%) and Russell 2000 (-1.6%) paced the slide while the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.7% with eight sectors ending in the red. Equities faced selling pressure from the opening bell after the overnight session reminded investors about persistent growth concerns around the globe. In Asia, China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to an eight-month low (50.3; expected 50.5) while Japan's debt rating was lowered to A1 from Aa3 at Moody's. Making matters worse, Germany's Manufacturing PMI slid into contraction (49.5; expected 50.0) while the eurozone Manufacturing PMI narrowly avoided the same fate (50.1; expected 50.4). Accordingly, the concerns about major economies kept cyclical sectors under pressure with five of six growth-sensitive groups ending behind the broader market. 

Equities enjoyed a broad rebound on Tuesday after Monday's retreat. The S&P 500 settled higher by 0.6% while the Russell 2000 (+1.2%) displayed relative strength. The benchmark index spent the day in a steady advance with M&A news acting as a supportive factor. In the technology sector (+0.3%), Cypress Semiconductor (CY) agreed to a $4 billion merger of equals with Spansion (CODE) while health care component (+1.1%) Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR) agreed to be acquired by Otsuka Pharmaceuticals for $3.5 billion in cash. Also of note, insurer Aviva (AV) announced its acquisition of Friends Life Group. 

The market ended the midweek session on an upbeat note with the Russell 2000 (+1.0%) pacing the advance for the second day in a row. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 posted a more modest gain of 0.4% with seven sectors ending in the green. Cyclical sectors were responsible for the bulk of the advance as all six growth-sensitive groups ended in the green while health care (+0.2%) was the lone gainer on the countercyclical side. 

The stock market ended the Thursday session on a modestly lower note ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report for November. The S&P 500 shed 0.1% while the Russell 2000 (-0.5%) underperformed. Thursday served as a perfect reminder for how dependent global equity markets have become on central bank stimulus. The first reminder occurred during the Asian session with China's Shanghai Composite soaring 4.3% amid expectations the People's Bank of China will introduce additional stimulus measures. While the advance was impressive, it pales in comparison with an 18.3% surge in the index since November 20. Meanwhile, the second reminder manifested itself through volatility in European and U.S. markets in reaction to the European Central Bank's latest policy statement and subsequent press reports. ECB President Mario Draghi did not call for the start of a sovereign QE program, which had been expected by some. However, a Bloomberg report indicating the ECB will prepare a broad-based QE package for the January meeting helped fuel a rebound.

DOW

NASDAQ

S&P

Macroeconomic Data

Economic Data

from Briefing.com

NON-FARM PAYROLL

Highlights

• Nonfarm payrolls increased by 321,000 in November, up from an upwardly revised 243,000 (from 214,000) in October. The Briefing.com consensus expected nonfarm payrolls to add 230,000 new jobs.
• Private payrolls increased by 314,000 in November after adding an upwardly revised 236,000 (from 209,000) in October. The consensus expected 228,000 new private jobs.
• The unemployment rate remained at 5.8% for a second consecutive month. That was exactly what the consensus expected.

Key Factors

That was the biggest increase in payrolls since 360,000 jobs were added in January 2012.
• Over the past few months, initial claims fell to levels that are normally associated with full employment. During that time, however, payroll growth was moderate. The lack of strong jobs growth suggested that there wasn’t much slack in the labor market. 
• Interestingly, the November jobs report provided evidence both for and against the slack argument.
• Obviously, a three-handle jobs gain is impressive. That tells us that there was still a considerable amount of people unemployed who were looking for jobs.
• Yet, those who already had jobs were able to demand a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings. That tells us that the number of available qualified workers is diminishing, which is forcing employers to pay their workers more money to keep them at their current job.
• What we may be seeing is that there is a disconnect between the top and bottom wage earners. The number of qualified top tier employees is shrinking but the number of people who are willing to work more menial hourly work remains large.
• The average workweek increased to 34.6 hours from a downwardly revised 34.5 hours (from 34.6).
• Overall, the combined increase in the average workweek, private payrolls, and hourly earnings led to a 0.9% increase in aggregate wages in November. That is more than enough to drive an acceleration in consumption growth even if consumers opt to continue increasing their savings.
• The household survey did not show much change in labor conditions from October. 
• Underemployment softened as the number of people working part-time for economic reasons fell by 177,000 jobs in November.The unemployment rate, including discouraged workers and underemployment, dipped to 11.4% in November from 11.5% in October.

Big Picture

• The November employment report showcased a strongly improved labor market.

TRADE BALANCE

Highlights

• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in October, falling from an upwardly revised $43.6 bln (from $43.0 bln) in September to $43.4 bln. The Briefing.com consensus expected the trade deficit to fall to $42.0 bln.

Key Factors

• The goods deficit was virtually unchanged at $62.7 bln while the services surplus increased to $19.2 bln from $19.1 bln.
• Total exports increased by $2.3 bn in November, from $195.2 bln in October to $197.5 bln. Most of the gain was the result of a $1.7 bln increase in capital goods exports, of which $1.0 came from civilian aircraft sales. Consumer goods exports increased by $0.4 bln.
• Imports increased by $2.1 bln in November to $241.0 bln from $238.8 bln. Strong gains in capital goods imports ($1.1 bln) offset a large drop in consumer goods demand ($0.8 bln). Cell phones, which boosted imports significantly in September, fell by $1.1 bln in October as demand for the new Apple (AAPL) iPhone 6 slowed. Automotive imports increased by $1.3 bln.
• The sharp drop in petroleum prices did not impact the overall petroleum trade deficit. That deficit increased to $15.2 bln in November from $14.0 bln in October. Both exports of petroleum-based products (-$1.4 bln) and imports (-$0.1 bln) declined during the month.
• The real goods deficit was nearly unchanged, falling to $50.8 bln from $50.9 bln.

Big Picture

• Large declines in oil prices had no impact on the trade deficit.

FACTORY ORDER

Highlights

• Factory orders declined 0.7% in October after declining an upwardly revised 0.5% (from -0.6%) in September. The Briefing.com Consensus expected factory orders to increase 0.3%.

Key Factors

• The large downside surprise was the result weaker oil prices. Lower oil prices caused a 6.5% decline in petroleum refinery orders, which led to a 1.5% decline in nondurable goods orders. Nondurable goods orders declined only 0.2% in September.
• Durable goods orders were revised down from an advance reading of 0.4% to 0.3%. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were revised down from -0.9% to -1.1%.
• Orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were also revised down from -1.3% to -1.6%. Shipments, which factor into fourth quarter GDP, were revised down to -0.7% from -0.4%.

Big Picture

• Unfilled orders growth should help boost production.

CONSUMER CREDIT

Highlights

• Consumer credit increased by $13.2 bln in October, down from a negatively revised $15.5 bln (from $15.9 bln) in September. The Briefing.com consensus expected consumer credit to increase by $16.5 bln.

Key Factors

• Credit has now increased by at least $10.0 bln for the last 11 consecutive months.
• Typically, consumer credit goes through substantial revisions before the final number is released. Any future revision is unlikely to alter the current growth trend.
• Revolving credit increased by $1.0 bln, from $881.6 bln in September to $882.6 bln in October.
• Nonrevolving credit increased to $2,396.3 bln in October from $2,384.0 bln in September, a gain of $12.3 bln.

Big Picture

• Consumer credit has increased by an average of $18.1 bln per month in 2014.

Market Internals

NYSE:

Lower Volumes than the day before – 754.9M vs 798.7M 


Advancers outpaced Decliners (adv/dec): 1633 / 1481

New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 179 / 143

NASDAQ:

Higher Volumes than the day before – 1755.1M vs 1715.9M

Advancers outpaced Decliners (adv/dec): 1826 / 949

New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 155 / 110

VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX)

11.82 -0.56 (-4.52%)

Market internals were more or less bullish although lower trading volumes. VIX went lower as it broke below its support level. 

Technical Updates

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ($INDU: CBOT)

17,958.79 +58.69 (+0.33%)

Volume: 79,105,759 (below average of 90,017,907)

Range: 17,903.05 - 17,991.19

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX ($COMPQ.IDX: NASDAQ)

4,780.76 +11.32 (+0.24%)

Volume: 449,462,984 (below average of 493,121,408)

Range: 4,769.64 - 4,788.98

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX: CBOE)

2,075.37 +3.45 (+0.17%)

Volume: 492,974,000 (below average of 533,681,215)

Range: 2,070.81 - 2,079.47 

From the technicals, they are indicating that the bulls are somewhat running out of steams. Volume was weak despite market reached a new high and that is telling me something about the bullish sentiment. Plus MACD continues to show some divergence...  

Commodities, Currencies and Bonds

Currency: Strong Jobs Report Propels Dollar to Best Levels Since March 2009

• The Dollar Index holds on session highs near 89.40 as trade readies for its best close since March 2009. 
• Traders are paying close attention to the 200 mma, which lurks near 90.00. 
• EURUSD is -95 pips @ 1.2280 as trade presses to its lowest levels since August 2012. The single currency struggled despite the strong German factory orders reading, and flushed to its worst levels in more than two years in response to the upbeat employment picture in the US. Aiding the decline were reports suggesting some dissent within the European Central Bank to the ability to launch a QE-type program. Italian banks are closed on Monday for Immaculate Conception Day. 
• GBPUSD is -85 pips @ 1.5585 as action slides to a fresh 15-month low. Sterling held small gains in early trade, but has come under pressure amid the broad-based dollar strength. 
• USDCHF is +75 pips @ .9785 as trade threatens to put in its best close since the summer of 2012. The pair saw little reaction to the build in the Swiss National Bank's foreign currency reserves, and instead has moved in lockstep with the euro. Swiss CPI and retail sales will cross the wires Monday. 
• USDJPY is +165 pips @ 121.45 as trade gains for the fifth time in six days. Today's advance has run action to its best levels since July 2007, and puts the 124.00 resistance level in focus. Japan's current account balance and Final GDP are due out Sunday evening. 
• AUDUSD is -60 pips @ .8320 as action dives to a fresh 53-month low. The hard currency has fallen in nine of ten sessions and has been unable to find traction after this week's Reserve Bank of Australia Statement suggested the next move could be a rate cut. Australia's trade balance will be released late Sunday. 
• USDCAD is +50 pips @ 1.1435 as trade flirts with its best finish since July 2009 following the disappointing employment change (-10.7K actual v. 5.3K expected) reading. Action has struggled in the 1.1450 area over the past month. Canadian data set for Monday includes housing starts and building permits.

Bonds: Strong Jobs Report Runs 2Y to Highest Since April 2011

• Treasuries lost ground this week as the November nonfarm payroll report (321K actual v. 230K expected) posted its best reading since January 2012 and the unemployment rate held at 5.8%. 
• The strong jobs number was coupled with a +0.4% increase in hourly wages, causing some to suggest the Fed could alter its 'considerable time' language at this month's policy meeting. 
• This week's European Central Bank meeting saw Mario Draghi suggest the central bank would 'reassess' sovereign debt purchases. 
• In Japan, all signs point to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe winning a super majority in the upcoming election.
• Weak data out of China fanned further speculation the People's Bank of China will look to ease policy  in early 2015. 
• Moody's downgraded Japan's credit rating to A1 from Aa3 while S&P cut Italy's credit rating to BBB-, the lowest for an investment grade security.
• Th rest of the economic data was mixed as ISM Index (58.7 actual v. 58.0 expected), construction spending (1.1% actual v. 0.6% expected), and ISM Services (59.3 actual v. 57.5 expected) outpaced estimates while productivity-rev. (2.3% actual v. 2.4% expected), unit labor costs-rev. (-1.0% actual v. 0.0% expected), and factory orders (-0.7% actual v. 0.2% expected) missed. 
• Up front, the 2Y rallied +16bps to 0.639% to close at its highest level since April 2011. The majority of  the week's advance came in response to Friday's strong jobs number,
• In the belly, the 5Y climbed +19bps to 1.682%. The yield busted through 1.600% resistance in response to Friday's jobs report and finished at a two-month high.
• The 10Y added +13bps to 2.307%. The benchmark yield continues to flirt with resistance in the 2.300% area.
• The long bond outperformed, causing the 30Y to tack on just +6bps to 2.964%. Interestingly, the yield on the long bond ended Friday's session little changed despite the strong jobs data. Resistance at the 3.000% level has proved difficult to conquer. 
• A flatter curve developed over  the course of the week as 2-10-yr spread tightened to 167bps. 

The Week Ahead 

• There is no data on Monday. ATL's Lockhart discusses his economic outlook and monetary policy (12:30). 
• Tuesday's data includes wholesale inventories and JOLTs - Job Openings (10). Treasury will hold a $25B 3Y note auction. 
• Data picks up on Wednesday as initial and continuing claims, retail sales, import/export prices (8:30), and business inventories (10) are due out. Treasury will reopen $21B 10Y notes. 
• Data concludes for the week on Thursday as PPI (8:30) and Michigan Sentiment (9:55) are set for release. Treasury will hold a $13B 30Y bond reopening. 
• There is no data scheduled for Friday.

Treasury Yields:

• 2 Year Note 0.65% +0.10
• 5 Year Note 1.69% +0.10
• 10 Year Note 2.31% +0.06
• 30 Year Bond 2.97% +0.03

2/30 Spread: 232 bps ( -7 ) …  2/10 Spread: 166 bps ( -4 )

Preview for the week Monday 8 Dec to Friday 12 Dec, 2014

Summary

First week of December proved to be bullish despite DFDM. Employment situation in the US are getting back on track as the Non-Farm Payroll had more than 300,000 jobs. Seemingly it shows some improvement, I still hold my opinion regarding the economy growth since November has been relatively the better month for hiring due to holiday seasons.  

Market is rather confused to me at the moment but given that we are in the month of December, it is likely to see the market go up...

Direction for the Monday 8 Dec, 2014; Down

Direction for the week Monday 8 Dec to Friday 12 Dec, 2014; Up

Daily Directional Accuracy (from 25 November 2014): 3/8 (37.50%)
Weekly Directional Accuracy (from 31 October 2014): 2/6 (33.33%)