Friday, 1 May 2015 - AMC

Dow +183.54 at 18024.06, Nasdaq +63.97 at 5005.39, S&P +22.78 at 2108.29

Thursday gave us the sign that market is about to take a reversal. There is a possibility that we would see a pullback on Friday but I feel that market should still continue heading down. Basically I feel as there is nothing optimistic in the market for the rally, a correction is more appropriate.

Happy Labours' Day and have a nice weekend.

Direction for Friday 1 May, 2015; Down

Well market managed to pullback on May Day. I feel that it was more of a short covering and the dip buyers coming in to push the market back to the resistance again. The Dollar Index also recovered despite weak economic data and meanwhile pulling crude oil price down from a rally with the number of oil rigs reflected another decline.                                           

Market Summary

Industry Watch

Strong: Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Industrials, Materials, Technology

Weak: Energy, Telecom Services, Utilities

Other Market Moving Factor:

• Dollar Index looks to snap seven-day skid
• S&P 500 reclaims 50-day average (2,090)
• Biotechnology outperforms after better than expected earnings from Gilead Sciences (GILD)

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended a defensive week on an upbeat note. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% to narrow its weekly decline to 0.4% while the Nasdaq (+1.3%) outperformed slightly today, but lost 1.7% since last Friday. 

The final session of the week was very quiet with the bulk of the action taking place at the open when the S&P 500 spiked above its 50-day moving average (2,090). The benchmark index spent the bulk of the day near its morning high, but punched through that level during afternoon action to complete a full retracement of Thursday's decline. 

Nine of ten sectors posted gains with materials (+1.7%) ending the day and the week (+2.0%) ahead of the remaining sectors. Today, the growth-sensitive group received support from Monsanto (MON 118.42, +4.46) as the stock spiked 3.9% after Bloomberg reported the company has approached Syngenta (SYT 77.95, +10.91) about a potential takeover. Steelmakers also contributed to the sector's strength withMarket Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 35.74, +0.49) climbing 1.4%. 

Meanwhile, the other commodity-related sector—energy—spent the bulk of the session in the red, but turned positive during the afternoon. The sector added 0.3% today and finished the week with a 1.1% gain. Crude oil weighed on the sector in the early going, but the energy component narrowed its loss to 0.8% by the close to settle at $59.15/bbl. WTI crude recovered a portion of its decline after the latest Baker Hughes Rig Count showed that the pace of decline in active oil and gas rigs slowed to 27 from 31 observed last week. 

However, crude oil could not return into the green as an uptick in the greenback weighed on the dollar-denominated commodity. To that point, the Dollar Index (95.15, +0.55) added 0.6% and registered its first advance in eight days after the previous seven sessions saw the index slide 3.6%. 

Outside of energy, the financial sector (+0.8%) was the only other cyclical group that ended the day behind the broader market. Meanwhile, the top-weighted technology sector (+1.5%) outperformed even as LinkedIn (LNKD 205.21, -46.92) plunged 18.6% after its cautious guidance overshadowed a one-cent beat. However, LinkedIn's weakness was offset by most large cap names with the likes of Apple (AAPL 128.95, +3.80), Oracle (ORCL 44.37, +0.75), and Intel (INTC 33.42, +0.87) gaining between 1.7% and 3.0%. 

Over on the countercyclical side, only the health care sector (+1.3%) finished the day ahead of the S&P 500 with help from biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 344.00, +10.34) spiked 3.1% after Gilead Sciences (GILD 105.03, +4.52) reported better than expected results. 

Treasuries retreated throughout the day, sending the 10-yr yield higher by eight basis points to 2.11%. 

Today's participation was below recent averages with roughly 720 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor. 

Economic data included Construction Spending, ISM Index, and Michigan Sentiment: 

• Construction spending declined 0.6% in March after increasing an upwardly revised 0.1% (from -0.1%) in February while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.4% 
  • Private construction spending increased 0.3% in March after declining 0.3% in February 
  • Despite a rebound in the new housing starts, private residential construction declined 1.6% in March after increasing 0.2% in February 
• The ISM Manufacturing Index was unchanged and remained at 51.5 in April while the Briefing.com Consensus expected an increase to 51.9 
  • Even though the overall index did not strengthen as the consensus expected, the key production and order readings showed improvement 
    • The Production Index increased to 56.0 in April from 53.8 in March 
    • The New Orders Index increased to 53.5 from 51.8 
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was unrevised in the final April reading after sentiment rose from 93.0 in March to 95.9 in April while the Briefing.com consensus expected a revision up to 96.0 
  • Unlike the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which declined in April, relatively higher gasoline prices and volatility in the equity markets had no adverse effects on the Consumer Sentiment Index 

Monday's data will be limited to the 10:00 ET release of the Factory Orders report for March (Briefing.com consensus 2.1%). 

• Nasdaq Composite +5.7% YTD 
• S&P 500 +2.4% YTD
• Russell 2000 +1.9% YTD 
• Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.1% YTD 

Week in Review: Backing Off Record Highs 

The stock market began the week with a pullback from record levels, but not before setting fresh intraday record highs during the opening minutes of action. The S&P 500 (-0.4%) registered its first decline in four sessions while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) underperformed. Equity indices displayed modest gains in the early going to follow a relatively quiet weekend. It is worth noting that China's Shanghai Composite soared 3.0% after MNI reported the People's Bank of China is looking into purchasing local government bonds. As for U.S. stocks, the S&P 500 held an eight-point gain at the start with cyclical sectors underpinning the early strength; however, biotechnology lagged from the early going and pressured the health care sector (-1.8%) to the bottom of the leaderboard. For its part, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 348.55, -15.15) lost 4.2% and contributed to the underperformance of the Nasdaq. 

Equity indices ended the Tuesday session on a mixed note with the Dow (+0.4%) and S&P 500 (+0.3%) registering modest gains while the Nasdaq (-0.1%) settled in the red. Stocks spent the bulk of the trading day near their flat lines, save for a morning retreat, which was retraced in short order. The brief pullback occurred after a disappointing Consumer Confidence report and unfolded amid reports from Al Arabiya indicating that a U.S. cargo vessel was seized by Iran. The U.S. Navy promptly refuted the report with subsequent stories revealing that the cargo ship came from the Marshall Islands, which are under U.S. protectorate. Furthermore, the ship was released a couple hours after the initial stoppage. Although the major averages returned to their flat lines in short order, extending the rebound proved challenging even though nine sectors finished in the green. The top-weighted technology sector (+0.2%) was limited to a modest gain with its largest component—Apple (AAPL 130.56, -2.09)—falling 1.6% despite beating earnings and revenue estimates; however, the stock entered the session with a 6.3% gain since April 17, suggesting a strong report was already priced in. 

The market ended the midweek session on a modestly lower note. The S&P 500 shed 0.4% while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) underperformed throughout the session. Equity indices struggled in the early going after the advance reading of Q1 GDP (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus 1.0%) missed expectations. However, that disappointment was partially offset by the FOMC directive, which did not stir concerns of a rate hike taking place in the near term. Instead, the FOMC reiterated that the current policy stance will remain appropriate until there is reasonable confidence among members that inflation will move back toward the 2.0% objective. Seven sectors registered losses while energy (+0.7%) outperformed throughout the session thanks to a 2.6% gain in crude oil, which settled at $58.52/bbl. The energy component was boosted by a storage report that showed a smaller than expected inventory build while dollar weakness also factored into the move higher. 

The major averages ended April on a lower note, but managed to escape with monthly gains. The S&P 500 lost 1.0% and narrowed its April advance to 0.9% while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.6%) underperformed today and ended the month (+0.8%) just behind the benchmark index. Equity indices faced selling pressure from the get-go with the largest sector—technology (-1.6%)—leading the daylong retreat. The influential group faced broad-based weakness with its top component—Apple (AAPL 125.15, -3.49)—sliding 2.7% after the Wall Street Journal reported that some watch components provided by AAC Technologies (AACAY 53.31, -2.79) may be defective. That being said, other sector members also struggled with Yelp (YELP 39.36, -11.92) cratering in reaction to its quarterly report. Shares of YELP tumbled 23.2% in reaction to disappointing earnings/revenue and cautious revenue guidance for Q2.

DOW

NASDAQ

S&P

Global Market

ASIA

Asian Markets Close: Japan’s Nikkei +0.1%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed for holiday; China’s Shanghai Composite closed for holiday
Most markets in the Asia-Pacific region were closed in observance of Labor Day/May Day. Accordingly, most were unable to react to the report out of China showing the official PMI reading for April coming in slightly stronger than expected at 50.1. Japan was open for trading and managed a slight gain following a number of economic releases from the country, including household spending and CPI, that were higher than expected.

Economic data

• Japan
• April Manufacturing PMI 49.9 (expected 49.8; prior 49.7)
• March Household Spending +2.4% month-over-month (expected +0.5%; prior +0.8%); -10.6% year-over-year (expected -12.1%; prior -2.9%)
• March National CPI +2.3% year-over-year (prior +2.2%)
• March National Core CPI +2.2% year-over-year (expected +2.1%; prior +2.0%)
• April Tokyo CPI +0.7% year-over-year (prior +2.3%)
• April Tokyo Core CPI +0.4% year-over-year (expected +0.5%; prior +2.2%)
• March Unemployment Rate 3.4% (expected 3.5%; prior 3.5%)
• Average Cash Earnings +0.1% year-over-year (expected +0.4%; prior +0.1%)
• China
• April Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expected 50.0; prior 50.1)
• April Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.4 (prior 53.7)
• South Korea
• April CPI +0.1% month-over-month (expected +0.1%; prior 0.0%); +0.4% year-over-year (expected +0.4%; prior +0.4%)
• April Trade Balance KRW 8.50 bln (expected KRW 7.52 bln; prior KRW 8.40 bln)
• Exports -8.1% year-over-year (expected -6.8%; prior -4.3%)
• Imports -17.8% year-over-year (expected -12.5%; prior -15.3%)
• Australia
• April AIG Manufacturing Index 48.0 (prior 46.3)
• April PPI +0.5% quarter-over-quarter (expected +0.2%; prior +0.1%); +0.7% year-over-year (prior +1.1%)
• Commodity Prices -20.5% year-over-year (prior -19.2%)

Equity Markets

• Japan’s Nikkei increased 0.1% thanks to a closing burst of buying interest in the final stages of trading. The slight gain came in the face of a large batch of mostly better than expected economic data for manufacturing, household spending, CPI, and the unemployment rate. The basic materials (+0.9%) and communications (+0.8%) sectors were the best-performing areas. Individual standouts included TOTO Ltd (+7.9%), Nito Denko Corp (+5.0%), and Japan Tobacco (+3.6%). Fujitsu (-17.9%) was the biggest individual loser. Out of the 225 index members 73 ended higher, 142 finished lower, and 10 were unchanged (Note: the Nikkei will be closed through May 6 for the Golden Week holiday)
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed for Labor Day
• China’s Shanghai Composite closed for Labor Day
• India’s Sensex closed for May Day
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased 0.4%, bouncing back from early selling pressure. The gains came after an April PPI report that showed a larger than expected 0.5% increase in producer prices quarter-over-quarter. The advance was supported by gains in the banking and mining stocks.
• Holiday closure: Indonesia (Labor Day), Malaysia (Labor Day), Philippines (Labor Day), Singapore (Labor Day), South Korea (Labor Day), Taiwan (Labor Day), Thailand (Labor Day), Vietnam (May Day)

FX

• USD/CNY unch at 6.2010
• USD/INR unch at 63.530
• USD/JPY +0.4% at 119.84

EUROPE

Most European markets are closed for Labor Day while UK’s FTSE (+0.1%) holds a slim gain. The euro has climbed 0.4% against the dollar (1.1255) to its best level since late February even though the greenback has shown strength against other currencies.

• UK’s April Manufacturing PMI 51.9 (expected 54.6; prior 54.0); March Mortgage Approvals 61,340 (consensus 62,400; previous 61,520); March BoE Consumer Credit GBP1.24 bln (expected GBP800 million; last GBP785 million); Net Lending to Individuals GBP3.10 bln (consensus GBP2.60 bln; previous GBP2.60 bln)

Closing Prices

• UK’s FTSE: + 0.4%
• Germany’s DAX: Closed — May Day
• France’s CAC: Closed — May Day
• Spain’s IBEX: Closed — May Day
• Portugal’s PSI: Closed — May Day
• Italy’s MIB Index: Closed — May Day
• Irish Ovrl Index: + 0.4%
• Greece ASE General Index: Closed — May Day

Macroeconomic Data

Economic Data

from Briefing.com

• ISM Index : 51.5 vs 51.9 (Prior 51.5)
• Construction Spending : -0.6% vs 0.4% (Prior 0.1% - Up)
• Michigan Sentiment - Final : 95.9 vs 96.0 (Prior 95.9)
• Auto Sales : (Prior 5.4M)
• Truck Sales : (Prior 8.2M)

ISM INDEX

Highlights

• The ISM Manufacturing Index was unchanged and remained at 51.5 in April. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the ISM Manufacturing Index to increase to 51.9.

Key Factors

• Even though the overall index did not strengthen as the consensus expected, the key production and order readings showed improvement. 
• The Production Index increased to 56.0 in April from 53.8 in March. The New Orders Index increased to 53.5 from 51.8. Order backlogs remained at 49.5, its second consecutive monthly contraction.
• The only real disappointing reading was the Employment Index, which slipped into a contraction in April. The related index fell to 48.3 from 50.0.

Big Picture

• This is a highly overrated index. It is merely a survey of purchasing managers. It is a diffusion index, which means that it reflects the number of people saying conditions are better compared to the number saying conditions are worse. It does not weight for size of the firm, or for the degree of better/worse. It can therefore underestimate conditions if there is a great deal of strength in a few firms. The data have thus not been either a good forecasting tool or a good read on current conditions during this business cycle. It must be recognized that the index is not hard data of any kind, but simply a survey that provides broad indications of trends.

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING

Highlights

• Construction spending declined 0.6% in March after increasing an upwardly revised 0.1% (from -0.1%) in February. The Briefing.com Consensus expected construction spending to increase 0.4%.

Key Factors

• Private construction spending increased 0.3% in March after declining 0.3% in February.
• Despite a rebound in the new housing starts, private residential construction declined 1.6% in March after increasing 0.2% in February. Spending on new structures declined 1.8% in March after declining 0.2% in February. Home improvement spending declined 1.0% after increasing 1.1% in February.
• Nonresidential construction spending increased 1.0% in March after increasing 0.5% in February. Large gains were reported in lodging (5.7%), office (2.9%), and manufacturing (2.8%). Those gains were partially offset by declines in commercial (-2.7%) and power (-0.9%).
• Total public construction spending declined 1.5% in March after declining 0.8% in February. Highway and street construction declined by 2.4% for a second consecutive month.

Big Picture

• Construction spending remains on an uneven trend.

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT

Highlights

• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was unrevised in the final April reading. Sentiment rose from 93.0 in March to 95.9 in April. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the Consumer Sentiment Index to be revised up to 96.0.

Key Factors

• Unlike the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which declined in April, relatively higher gasoline prices and volatility in the equity markets had no adverse effects on the Consumer Sentiment Index.
• The Current Conditions Index was revised down to 107.0 in the final April reading from 108.2 in the preliminary report. The index is still above its March (105.0) level.
• The Expectations Index was revised up to 88.8 from 88.0 and topped the 85.3 reading in March.
• The improvement in sentiment does not necessarily foreshadow upcoming gains in consumption trends. Consumption growth follows income growth. An acceleration in income is needed to spur an acceleration in consumer demand.

Big Picture

• Consumer sentiment has little influence on consumption. As long as payroll levels continue to expand, the resulting income growth should keep consumption gains steady regardless of the monthly ebbs and flows in sentiment.

AUTO SALES

Highlights

• Motor vehicle sales increased to 17.1 mln SAAR in March from 16.2 mln SAAR in February. That was the first time that sales topped 17.0 mln SAAR since reaching 17.2 mln SAAR in November 2014.
• Domestic sales increased to 13.7 mln SAAR in March from 13.1 mln SAAR in February. Domestic auto sales rose to 5.4 mln SAAR in March from 5.2 mln SAAR in February, and domestic truck sales increased to 8.2 mln SAAR from 8.0 mln SAAR.
• Sales of imports increased to 3.5 mln SAAR in March from 3.1 mln SAAR in February. That was the most imports sold since June 2014.

Key Factors

• Year-over-year, motor vehicle sales were up a modest 0.5%.
• Sales declined significantly at both Ford (F, -3.5%) and General Motors (GM, -2.4%). Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) continued its winning streak and increased 1.7%.
• Overseas sales were mixed.
• Demand at Toyota (TM) increased 4.9% and Hyundai-Kia posted a 9.9% gain. On the flip side, Volkswagen (-6.2%), Honda (HMC, -5.3%), and Nissan (-2.7%) all posted significant sales declines.
• Relatively low gasoline prices are cutting deeply into demand for Tesla (TSLA) cars. Sales were down 20% in March and are also down 20% year-to-date.
• Year-to-date, sales are up 5.6% from this time last year.

Big Picture

• Total motor vehicle sales are expected to increase to 17.0 mln in 2015.

Market Internals

NYSE:

Lower Volumes than the day before – 713.0M vs 1078.5M 


Advancers outpaced Decliners (adv/dec): 1870 / 1200

New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 46 / 37

NASDAQ:

Lower Volumes than the day before – 1833.3M vs 2249.3M

Advancers outpaced Decliners (adv/dec): 1682 / 1133

New Lows outpaced New Highs (highs/lows): 40 / 74

VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX)
12.70 -1.85 (-12.71%)

Although we saw the internals getting more bullish, the New Highs did not really pick up. VIX went down after the 20 and 50 MAs failed. Perhaps it is just a knee jerk reaction as market gets pullback.

Technical Updates

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ($INDU: CBOT)

18,024.96 +183.54 (+1.03%)

Volume: 91,702,042 (above average of 99,827,430)
Range: 17,859.27 - 18,028.89

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX ($COMPQ.IDX: NASDAQ)

5,005.39 +63.97 (+1.29%)
Volume: 461,132,337 (above average of 439,625,843)

Range: 4,962.74 - 5,005.39

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX: CBOE)

2,108.29 +22.78 (+1.09%)

Volume: 509,568,000 (below average of 538,784,354)

Range: 2,087.38 - 2,108.41 

It seems more like a technical rebound from the market. It also appears that the indices are facing another resistance level as well. But looking at MACD, it looks like we are not going to go higher soon. I suppose if NASDAQ could not break above its resistance level, we might see a head and shoulder pattern forming. Meanwhile DOW and S&P are also still consolidating actually.  

Commodities

Closing Commodities: WTI Oil Closes Above $59/Barrel

• Energy futures closed mixed today with oil falling, natural gas posts some gains and RBOB and heating oil ending flat
• June crude lost $0.43 to $59.11/barrel, while June nat gas rose $0.03 to $2.78/MMBtu
• June gold fell $8 today to $1174.20/oz, while July silver declined $0.04 to $16.11/oz as strength in the dollar index continued to weigh on both precious metals today

Energy

• June crude oil futures fell $0.43/barrel to $59.11/barrel
• June natural gas closed $0.03 higher at $2.78/MMBtu
• RBOB Gasoline closed flat at $2.04/gallon
• Heating oil closed flat at $1.98/gallon

Notables:

• Crude Oil: the Baker Hughes total US rig count showed a decline of 27 rigs to 905, marking the 21st consecutive week of declines.

Agriculture

• July corn closed $0.01 higher to $3.63/bushel
• July wheat closed $0.02 lower to $4.74/bushel
• July soybeans closed $0.12 lower at $9.65/bushel
• Ethanol closed $0.01 lower at $1.59/gallon
• Sugar #11 closed 0.27 cents lower to 12.91 cents/lb

Highlights:

• Soybeans: A current dockworker strike in the Argentinian port of Rosario has the potential to slow the shipment of corn and soybeans for global export, and may manifest volatility in the soybean and corn markets in upcoming days/weeks. The strike began on Wednesday and no current agreement has been announced that would allow port flow to begin.

Metals

• June gold ended today’s session $8.00 lower to $1174.20/oz
• July silver closed $0.04 lower at $16.11/oz
• July copper closed $0.05 higher to $2.93/lb

Currencies

Dollar Gains for First Day in Eight

• The dollar gained against all of the majors today as the market rebounded from a very tough week
• News flow was slow as the May Day holiday kept many foreign markets closed
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rallied 0.65% to 95.22, despite weaker-than-expected ISM and Construction Spending data
    • The key production and order readings of the ISM Index did show improvement
• EUR/USD fell 0.19% to $1.1195
• GBP/USD fell 1.36% to $1.51.45
  • The U.K.'s Manufacturing PMI was 51.9 in April, worse than both expectations and the 54.0 in March
• AUD/USD fell 0.91% to $0.7830
• NZD/USD -1.05% to 0.7528
• USD/JPY rallied 0.67% to 120.25

Bonds

Yields Continue Higher

• Treasuries traded lower today, with heavy losses taken by 5's, 10's, and 30's
• Yield check (weekly change in parenthesis):
  • 2-yr: +3 bps to 0.60% (+9 bps)
  • 5-yr: +8 bps to 1.50% (+18 bps)
  • 10-yr: +8 bps to 2.11% (+19 bps)
  • 30-yr: +8 bps to 2.82% (+21 bps)

• News:
  • The ISM Manufacturing Index was unchanged and remained at 51.5 in April. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the ISM Manufacturing Index to increase to 51.9
    • The Production Index increased to 56.0 in April from 53.8 in March. The New Orders Index increased to 53.5 from 51.8
    • Construction spending declined 0.6% in March after increasing an upwardly revised 0.1% (from -0.1%) in February. The Briefing.com Consensus expected construction spending to increase 0.4%. Private construction spending increased 0.3% in March after declining 0.3% in February
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was unrevised in the final April reading. Sentiment rose from 93.0 in March to 95.9 in April. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the Consumer Sentiment Index to be revised up to 96.0

• Commodities:
  • WTI Crude fell 0.47% to $59.35/bbl, but had traded as low as $58.32/bbl
  • Gold fell 0.65% to $1,174.70/troy oz.
  • Copper rallied 1.54% to $2.931/lb.

• Currencies:
  • EUR/USD: -0.14% $1.1199
  • USD/JPY: +0.64% to 120.22    

• Week Ahead: 
  • Monday: Boston Fed President Rosengren (non-FOMC voter) (09:00 ET); Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter)(09:00 ET or later); March Factory Orders (10:00 ET); Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks on current economic conditions and monetary policy (12:25ET); San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks in San Francisco on "Creating Jobs and Economic Opportunity through Small Business" (15:10 ET) 
  • Tuesday: March Trade Balance (08:30 ET); April ISM Services (10:00 ET); Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota (non-FOMC voter) (20:00 ET)
  • Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Index for the week ending 05/02 (07:00 ET); April ADP Employment Change (08:15 ET); Q1 Productivity - Preliminary (08:30 ET); Q1 United Labor Costs -- Preliminary (08:30 ET); Fed Chair Yellen speaks on "Finance and Society" (09:15 ET); Crude Inventories for the week ending 05/02 (10:30 ET); Kansas City Fed President George (non-FOMC voter) participates in "Credit Markets: Booms, Busts and Distortions" panel (13:15 ET); Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC voter) speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy (13:30 ET)
  • Thursday: April Challenger Job Cuts (07:30 ET); Initial Jobless Claims for the week 05/02 and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending 04/25 (08:30 ET); Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 05/02 (10:30 ET); March Consumer Credit (15:00 ET)
  • Friday: April Employment Situation Report (08:30 ET); March Wholesale Inventories (10:00 ET)

Treasury Yields:

• 2 Year Note 0.60% +0.02
• 5 Year Note 1.50% +0.07
• 10 Year Note 2.12% +0.07
• 30 Year Bond 2.82% +0.07

2/30 Spread: 222 bps ( +5 ) …  2/10 Spread: 152 bps ( +5 )

Preview for the week Monday 4 May to Friday 8 May, 2015

Economic Data

Monday (4 May) :

• Factory Orders : 2.1% (Prior 0.2%)

Tuesday (5 May) :

• Trade Balance : -$40.0B (Prior $35.4B)
• ISM Services : 56.4 (Prior 56.5)

Wednesday (6 May) :

• MBA Mortgage Index : (Prior -2.3%) 
• ADP Employment Change : 189K (Prior 189K)
• Productivity - Prelim : -1.9% (Prior -2.2%)
• Unit Labor Costs - Prelim : 4.2% (Prior 4.1%)
• Crude Inventories : (Prior 1.910M) 

Thursday (7 May) :

• Challenger Job Cuts : (Prior 6.4%)
• Initial Claims : 280K (Prior 262K)
• Continuing Claims : 2300K (Prior 2253K)
• Natural Gas Inventories : (Prior 81 bcf)
• Consumer Credit : $16.0B (Prior $15.5B)

Friday (8 May) :

• Nonfarm Payrolls : 213K (Prior 126K)
• Nonfarm Private Payrolls : 205K (Prior 129K)
• Unemployment Rate : 5.4% (Prior 5.5%)
• Hourly Earnings : 0.2% (Prior 0.3%)
• Average Workweek : 34.6 (Prior 34.5) 
• Wholesale Inventories : 0.3% (Prior 0.3%)

Earnings Highlights

Monday (4 May) :
BMO - ALR AMCX ARCC ARCB ARRY BWP BSFT CVC CEVA CNA CTSH CMCSA DO D EMES ETM EXAS FRM GLPI HYH HNT HSIC KERX KOS LMIA L MDWD MFA MGM NMM NCT NKA ON PETS RLGY SYY TSN WLK WLKP
AMC - ATEN  ADEP AEIS AEGR APU APC AGII CAR BALT BKH BBRG CKEC ECOM CHUY XEC CDE CGNX CXO DVA DENN PLOW DNB ELNK EOX ENH EOG FN FNF FBP RAIL HVT HIL IRG IMPR IM IDTI ININ IVAC INVN ITRI KAI KS LSCC LMNX MIC MATX MDU MERU MCEP MRH MTSC MUSA NLS EGOV NUVA ONDK ONTY OTTR PACD PKY PQ PPS PTCT QLYS RWT ROSE STAG STLY SGY RGR INN SNHY SHO SYKE TCPI THC TXRH UGI VSAR VNO WG XPO

Tuesday (5 May) :
BMO - ABMD ACTA AKRX ALLT RESI AMAG AFSI ANIP ADM BLMN BBEP BPI BBW CCG CSG CLDT CIE CVLT SCOR CRTO CYNO DTV DISCA DW EMR EIGIENR EL EXLP EXH GCAP GLT GPX GVA GTN GLDD HRS HCA HCP HW HRC HEP H ICE ISIS K KEM KMT KLIC LPX MMP MNK MSO MDC NNN NSM NBL NAO NTi NWN OZM ODP OXFD PRIM SALE SABR SGNT SBH SMG SRE SSE SKYS SPAR STWD SNSS NGLS TECH TGH MDCO TW TDG TLP TRW UAM USAK VLP VSH VPG VMC WLT WNR WNRL WEC ZTS
During Mkt Hours - YORW
AMC - AGU ATSG Y ALL AWR AMSG AMRS ANAD ANDE WTR ARC AIZ ACLS AXLL BIO BRDR CSU CTLT CDI ICEL CENT CTL CERS CYH CVG COUP CRAY CSGS CYNI DTLK DKL DK DVN FANG DLR EA ENPH ERA ESE EXAM FISV FOSLFTR GNMK GHDX GCA GMED GRPN GPOR HK HLF HRZN HPTX IAG ICUI IGTE TEG IGT IRWD XXIA JIVE KAR KGC KONA LC LMOS MHLD MIG MM MYL MYGN NVGS NYMT NFX NDLS NWPX OCLR OKE OKS OUT PACB PZZA PKD PCTI PXD PAA PAGP PBPB POWL QGEN QUAD QNST RLOC RP RGP RNR REGI REXX RUBI SBRA SKUL SM SCTY SPA SLF SUPN TTOO TMH TTGT TSRA TRNX CLUB TNET TSE TRIV USNA VRTS VVUS WAGE DIS WTW WSTC WR WGP WES WSR ZFGN ZAGG ZLTQ ZEN ZU

Wednesday (6 May) :
BMO - CEQP DDD AYR BUD ANSS ARQL ATHM AVA AVOL BAM CACQ CSTE CRZO CRNT CHK CHH CLH CKSW CRRC CMLP DNR XRAY EGAN EE ENB EXK XLS DAVE GLOG GDP HAIN HSC HTA HCLP HFC HSNI IMN INFI KELYA FSTR LG LAMR LINC MWE MEMP MPO MSI NOR NXTM OXY OCUL POM PERI POWR PGNX QLTI RDUS RDC RHP SPNS SNH SBGI SODA SE SWC STRA SCMP SUP TMHC TRXC TVPT VSI VG VOYA WD WCG WEN WMC WIX WPX
AMC - FOXA ATVI HIVE MITT ALB ALDW ACAS AWK ANAC NLY AMTG AREX ATML ATO AUQ AVNW BWC BLCM BNFT BEAT BRKR CJES CZR CPE CECO CSLTCF CKP CHEF CHGG CLVS CODI CBPX CLR CPA CSOD CXW CUZ BREW CCRN CTRP CUB DPM DMD ECR EFC EGN ETP ETE EXXI EPAM EQC ESS EVTC EPM EXPD EXTR FGL FNGN FLTX FOXF FNV BGC GBDC GUID HGR HR HRTG HUBS INOV NSIT XENT IL IVR IO JKHY JONE JUNO KTWO KW GMCR KIM KND KRO LADR LCI LDRH LGCY LHCG MRO MCHX MRIN FISH MASI DOOR MTDR MELI MET MYRG NSTG NP NEFF NEWP NUS OAS OSUR ORA FRSH PAYC PDLI PEGA PNNT PFSI PMT PFMT PGTI PHH PRAA PTLA PRAH PRI PSEC PRU QLTY QTM RYN REG REXR RLJ RST SN SD SWM SQNM SBY SZYM SLH SGM SXL SUN TSLA TTPH THRX RIG RIGP TCAP TRIP TROX TUMI TWO VNDA VRNS VVC VECO WTI WBMD WGL WFM XNPT

Thursday (7 May) :
BMO - WBAI AAON AXAS ACHN WMS AGIO ALU BABA ALE AEE AMRC ARCP APA APO ARMK MT ACRE ARIA BDX BLT BDBD CCC CNQ CSIQ CDW CECE CHD CBB CNK CCOI CNSL CORE COT COTY CRIS CONE DWRE HILL DFT SATS RDEN ENTA ENZY FELP FIG FSYS FXCM IT ROCK GLP GSM GOGO GSIG GWPH HL ONE HPT HMHC HWCC HII ICD IPCC IRC INSY INXN SNAK JASO KATE LPI LXP LGIH LCUT LIOX LQDT MGA MBUU MFC MMS MZOR MPW MPEL MITL TAP MWW NRP NXST NICE NJR NNBR NCLH DNOW OGE OMED OPK OWW PDCE PRFT PMC DOC PGEM PMFG POZN PPL PCLN RDNT GOLD REGN RGEN RFP REV RWLK RICE RMP RSTI RRD SRPT SNI SEAS SSTK LEAF S STE SRI SPH SUNE SFY TLM TU TDC TIME TOWR TA THS GTS USPH USAC VTG VC WPC WAC WRES WPP WIN WPG
AMC - TWOU ACAD ACET ADVS ABCO AL AIRM ALSK ALDR ALIM MDRX ALNY ALJ AMBR AMH AHS ASYS AAOI PETX AHT ASPN AGO ABTL BEBE BIOS BBOX WIFI BCEI BKD CA CBS CCS CERN CDXS ED CNAT CORT CROX CUTR CYBR DIOD DRWI DRC DXPE EBS ECPG ECYT ERII ENOC ENSG EVC ENV EAC ESPR EZPW FFG FRT FPRX FLDM FRPT FTD FXEN GALE GST GEOS GXP GDOT GSIT HNSN HAYN HTGC ICFI IMPV SAAS INWK ICPT IILG XON JCOM JMBA JAZZ KMPR KEYW KTOS LF LBTYA MAIN MTRX MED MDVN MTD MCHP MIDD MSON MHK MOH MCP MNST MFLX NHI NGVC NAVG NNI UEPS NWSA NOG NVAX NUAN NES NVDA OEC OUTR PGRE PCTY PLNR PPO POST PSIX PRA PRO QEPM QUMU RPTP RMAX RJET RIGL RBA FUEL RMTI RRMS RBCN RYI SGMS SEMG SREV SWIR SSNI SLW SPTN SPPI SRC SFM STMP SF SEMI DATA TNGO TEAR TLLP THOR TSLX TRMR TGI TRUE TCX TPC UBNT UEIC OLED EGY VCYT WAIR XOXO XOMA YDLE YUME Z ZIOP ZGNX ZNGA

Friday (8 May) : 
BMO - AMRN AOL BECN BBG BCRX BITA NILE BR CST TRAK DRH EBIX ERF ESNT FLY GTXI HCN HMSY HZNP ZINC SNOW JD KOP LXU MHR NWHM NRF NYLD SSP SIRO LNCE SJI TTI TREX TPH TRCO VICL WWAV WLH
AMC - None Scheduled

Summary

I can't really say that Friday session was a bullish one as I feel it is short-covering instead. Or maybe market is presuming the weak economic data as a factor that might delay Fed's decision to raise interest rate. And whether we would see more downside would probably affected by the employment data next week.

With May coming, maybe we should see a Sell in May this time if the momentum continues.

Direction for Monday 4 May, 2015; Up

Direction for the week Monday 4 May to Friday 8 May, 2015; Down

2015 Daily Directional Accuracy: 32/63 (50.79%) 
2015 Weekly Directional Accuracy: 9/15 (60.00%)