Friday, 13 Nov 2015 - AMC

Dow -202.83 at 17245.24, Nasdaq -77.20 at 4927.88, S&P -22.93 at 2023.04

It was sad to hear what happened over at France and let's take a moment of silence for Paris attack on Friday. 

Market is still likely to go lower as we continue to see more selling. There was some short-covering at the support in the morning but I doubt there was any serious dip buyers coming in on Friday. 

We saw a sea of red across major markets around the world. Both Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index were down 1.15% and 1.6% respectively. 
  

Market Summary

Industry Watch

Strong: Energy, Health Care, Materials

Weak: Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Financials

Other Market Moving Factor:

• October PPI (-0.4%; Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) and Retail Sales (+0.1%; consensus +0.3%) miss expectations, but the dollar rallies anyways

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended a down week on a woeful note after the release of some disappointing economic data and uninspiring retail earnings. The S&P 500 lost 1.1%, widening this week's decline to 3.6% while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.5%) underperformed to end the week lower by 4.3%. 

Equity indices spent the duration of the trading day in negative territory, pressured mostly by heavily-weighted consumer discretionary (-2.6%) and technology (-2.0%) sectors. Both cyclical groups traded well behind the broader market throughout the day and that underperformance prevented the market from staging a meaningful rebound. The S&P 500 briefly rallied above its 100-day moving average (2,034) in late morning action, but the move was retraced fully into the afternoon as the two influential sectors remained weak and the rest of the market gave in to the weakness. 

The consumer discretionary space suffered from a one-two punch as October retail sales missed expectations (+0.1%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) while Nordstrom (JWN 53.96, -9.51) and Fossil (FOSL 32.39, -18.62) issued disappointing guidance. The two names plunged, posting respective losses of 15.0% and 36.5% while J.C. Penney (JCP 7.44, -1.35) also struggled, tumbling 15.4% despite reporting a smaller than expected loss. 

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, the technology space (-2.0%) was weighed down by Cisco Systems (CSCO 26.21, -1.62) as the heavyweight sank 5.8% after below-consensus guidance overshadowed a three-cent beat. Other influential tech names also struggled with Apple (AAPL 112.34, -3.38) falling 2.9% and Alphabet (GOOGL 740.07, -16.46) surrendering 2.2%. To be fair, there were a couple bright spots among semiconductor names as Applied Materials (AMAT 17.36, +0.83) spiked 5.0% in reaction to in-line earnings on below-consensus revenue. 

The relative weakness in technology kept the Nasdaq behind the broader market, which masked a solid showing in the biotech space. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 323.64, +3.53) spiked 1.1%, but could not close above its 50-day moving average (324.77), while the health care sector settled ahead of the broader market, but still lost 0.2%. 

Also of note, the energy sector shed 0.4% today, ending the week lower by 5.5%. Crude oil, meanwhile, continued its recent slide, falling 2.6% to $40.68/bbl. For the week, WTI crude lost 8.2%. 

Unlike stocks, Treasuries advanced throughout the day, ending near their highs with the 10-yr yield falling four basis points to 2.28%. 

Today's trading volume was relatively strong as roughly 925 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included Retail Sales, PPI, Michigan Sentiment, and Business Inventories: 

• Retail sales were up a weaker than expected 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), while sales, excluding autos, were up a weaker than expected 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) 
  • Results for September were revised lower with total sales unchanged (from 0.1%) and sales excluding autos revised to -0.4% (from -0.3%) 
• The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) in October on top of an unrevised 0.5% decline in September 
  • The index is down 1.6% year-over-year, which is a record 12-month decline for the final demand index 
  • The downturn in October was led primarily by the index for final demand services, which declined 0.3% while the index for final demand goods declined 0.4%. 
  • Excluding food and energy, PPI declined 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) versus an unrevised 0.3% decline in September 
• The preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November showed an uptick to 93.1 from the final reading of 90.0 for October and 88.8 in the same period a year ago 
  • The Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 92.0 
  • The improvement in November was driven by higher readings for both the Current Economic Conditions Index (to 104.8 from 102.3) and the Index of Consumer Expectations (to 85.6 from 82.1) 
• Total business inventories increased 0.3% in September on top of an upwardly revised 0.1% increase for August (from 0.0%) while the Briefing.com consensus expected no change 
  • The inventory-to-sales ratio edged up to 1.38 in September from 1.37 in August 
    • In September 2014, the inventory-to-sales ratio stood at 1.31 

Monday's economic data will be limited to the Empire Manufacturing Index for November, which will be released at 8:30 ET. 

• Nasdaq +4.1% YTD 
• S&P 500 -1.7% YTD 
• Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.2% YTD 
• Russell 2000 -4.6% YTD 

Week in Review: Energy Sector Leads Stocks Lower

The stock market began the trading week on a cautious note as persistent global growth concerns weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 surrendered 1.0% while the Dow and Nasdaq posted comparable losses. Equities retreated through the first half of the Monday session and remained near their lows into the afternoon, which kept dip-buyers on the sidelines. The cautious posture in the market took place after the weekend featured the release of China's trade data, which showed a 10-yr high in the trade surplus, but exports fell 6.9% in October, representing the fourth consecutive monthly drop. Nine sectors ended the day in negative territory with losses between 0.7% (consumer staples) and 1.5% (energy) while the utilities space climbed 0.3%. 

Tuesday ended on a mixed note as the Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) settled with a modest loss while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) and S&P 500 (+0.2%) overcame the weakness in the technology sector (-0.7%), eking out slim gains. Stocks stumbled at the start of the trading day with the opening move paced by the largest stock in terms of market cap. Specifically, Apple (AAPL 116.73, -3.84) fell 3.2% in reaction to a Credit Suisse report, which indicated the tech giant has cut its orders for iPhone 6s components by as much as 10.0%. Shares of Apple slid below their 100-day moving average (117.33) after struggling with the 200-day average (122.06) over the previous few days. 

The market spent the Wednesday session inside a narrow range before ending with a modest loss. The S&P 500 shed 0.3% while the Nasdaq Composite settled in line with the benchmark index after showing relative strength intraday. Overall, the midweek affair was very quiet as the stock market bounced around its flat line while the bond market was closed for Veterans Day. The subdued activity was evidenced by below-average trading volume as fewer than 800 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor. Four sectors ended the day above their flat lines, but their gains were overshadowed by a significant decline in the energy sector (-1.9%) while other influential groups like health care (-0.9%), consumer discretionary (-0.5%), and financials (-0.2%) also struggled. 

The stock market could not avoid its second consecutive decline on Thursday with the S&P 500 (-1.4%) falling below its 200-day moving average (2,064). The benchmark index retreated throughout the session while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%) settled a step ahead. The key indices faced selling pressure from the get-go with the early weakness following a cautious session in Europe where markets in France, Germany, and Spain lost between 1.2% and 2.3%. Things did not improve by the start of the New York Session, which led to opening losses in nine of ten sectors. Most notably, the energy sector (-2.4%) struggled from the start and the significant underperformance in the growth-sensitive group set the tone for a down day.

Global Market

ASIA

The Asian equity markets generally closed lower last night, partially playing catch up to the declines seen in US equities yesterday. Starting in China, the Shanghai closed down 1.4%. Recall yesterday that the weaker than expected lending data was released after the Mainland markets were closed, thus the Chinese stocks were hit in response. There was also chatter overnight that the yuan may be ask risk of not being included into the IMF’s reserve currency basket after the IMF offered a cautious tone surrounding the recent economic data out of China. Japanese stocks fell as well, with the Nikkei finishing down 0.5%, representing its first losing day in nearly 2 weeks. The recent strength in the yen over the past couple of sessions may also have kept investors at bay.

Economic data

• Japan
• Sep Final Industrial PRoduction: +1.1% vs +1.0% prelim
• Sep Conference Board Leading Economic Index: -0.8% vs 0.1% in Aug
• South Korea
• Sep Conference Board Leading Economic Index: +0.6% vs +0.3% in Aug
• Singapore
• Sep Retail sales: -3.7% V +5.5% in Aug

Equity Markets

• Japan’s Nikkei declined 0.5%. The Nikkei started to trade lower right out of the gate, falling over 1% after the first hour of trade. The index managed to gain half of the early losses back before the mid-way point of the session, but after that, the range was very tight. Some of the movers that lagged the broader market were Showa Shell (-1.3%), Sony Financial (-1.2%) and T&D Holdings (-1.1%) all after reporting earnings. On the positive side, Nissin Food Holdings closed 8.1% higher after the co posted better than expected earnings results.
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 2.2% and finished at its lows in a seesaw session. Although the index opened lower, trading was muted and rangebound thereafter, with volumes lighter than average. Among the consumer discretionary space, Sun Art Retail Group lost 3.2% after it reported its 9-month earnings. Among the Industrials, Yue Yuen Industrial also dropped 5.4% after the company posted a weaker than expected Sep quarter.
• China’s Shanghai Composite declined 1.4%. The index opened roughly 0.5% lower, and traded back to the unchanged level shortly after the first hour of trade. But that was as far as the market would go, with some of the chatter mentioned above weighing on stocks. A final attempt to rally in the last hour was stalled and left the composite closing near session lows. Some of the most notable movers were PetroChina (-4.1%), CNOOC (-4.1%) and China Unicom (-1.9%).
• India’s Sensex declined 1.3% and ended near its lows for the day with selling interest picking up in the afternoon trade. The benchmark ended in the red for the third successive week, with BSE Sensex down 655 points, or 2.49%. The weakness was broadbased with the BSE midcap and BSE smallcap indices shedding 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively. The of the 30 stocks in the index, 23 closed in negative territory. Among the most notables, Tata Motors lagged the group, closing down 2.2% for the session.

FX

• USD/CNY +0.07% at 6.3737
• USD/INR -0.32% at 66.0988
• USD/JPY +0.04% at 122.63

EUROPE

Major European indices trade lower across the board with France’s CAC (-1.3%) at the bottom of the barrel. Regional markets are on track to erase last week’s gains and then some. The euro, meanwhile, has held its ground against the greenback, adding about 20 pips from last week’s settlement to 1.0765.

• Eurozone Q3 GDP +0.3% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.4%; previous 0.4%); +1.6% year-over-year (expected 1.7%; last 1.5%)
• Germany’s Q3 GDP +0.3% quarter-over-quarter, as expected (prior 0.0%); +1.8% year-over-year, as expected (last 1.6%)
• France’s Q3 GDP +0.3%, as expected (prior 0.0%) and Nonfarm Payrolls +0.1% quarter-over-quarter, as expected (last 0.0%)
• Italy’s Q3 GDP +0.2% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.3%; last 0.3%); +0.9% year-over-year (consensus 1.0%; last 0.6%). Separately, October CPI +0.2% month-over-month, as expected; +0.3% year-over-year, as expected
• Spain’s October CPI +0.6% month-over-month (consensus 0.7%; prior -0.3%); -0.7% year-over-year, as expected (previous -0.9%)
• Swiss October PPI +0.2% month-over-month (consensus -0.2%; last -0.1%); -6.6% year-over-year (expected -6.9%; previous -6.8%)

Closing Prices

• UK’s FTSE: -1.0%
• Germany’s DAX: -0.7%
• France’s CAC: -1.0%
• Spain’s IBEX: -0.3%
• Portugal’s PSI: -0.3%
• Italy’s MIB Index: -0.1%
• Irish Ovrl Index: -0.1%
• Greece ASE General Index: -1.0%

Macroeconomic Data

Economic Data

from Briefing.com

• PPI : -0.4% vs 0.1% (Prior -0.5%)
• Core PPI : -0.3% vs 0.1% (Prior -0.3%)
• Retail Sales : 0.1% vs 0.3% (Prior 0.1%)
• Retail Sales ex-auto : 0.2% vs 0.4% (Prior -0.3%)
• Michigan Sentiment : 93.1 vs 92.0 (Prior 90.0)
• Business Inventories : 0.3% vs 0.0% (Prior 0.0%)
• Natural Gas Inventories : 49 bcf (Prior 52 bcf)

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX

Highlights

• There wasn't any good news for the Federal Reserve in the October Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI for final demand declined 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) in October on top of an unrevised 0.5% decline in September. 
• Excluding food and energy, the final demand index declined 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) versus an unrevised 0.3% decline in September.

Key Factors

• The downturn in the final demand index for October was led primarily by the index for final demand services, which declined 0.3%. 
• Over half of the decline in the index for final demand services was related to margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, which dropped 15.8%.
• Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services increased 0.1%.
• The index for final demand goods declined 0.4%, which is the fourth consecutive decrease.
• The index for core processed goods for intermediate demand fell 0.2% while the index for core unprocessed intermediate goods declined 1.3%, demonstrating that pipeline price pressures continue to weaken.

Big Picture

• The PPI final demand index is down 1.6% year-over-year, which is a record 12-month decline for the final demand index. Meanwhile, the index for final demand excluding food and energy is up just 0.1% year-over-year, which is off sharply from the 0.8% year-over-year increase seen in September.

RETAIL SALES

Highlights

• Retail sales were up a weaker than expected 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), while sales, excluding autos, were up a weaker than expected 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%). Results for September were revised lower with total sales unchanged (from 0.1%) and sales excluding autos revised to -0.4% (from -0.3%).

Key Factors

• Strength in October was concentrated in the miscellaneous store retailers (+1.8%), nonstore retailers (+1.4%), building equipment and supplies (+0.9%), health and personal care stores (+0.7%), food service and drinking places (+0.5%), furniture and home furnishings stores (+0.4%), and sporting goods, hobby, and music stores (+0.4%).
• Gasoline station sales declined 0.9%, auto and parts sales fell 0.5%, electronics and appliance store sales were down 0.4%, and food and beverage store sales were down 0.3%
• Clothing and clothing accessories sales were flat after declining 0.1% in August.
• Core retail sales, which exclude auto, gasoline station, and building material and supplies sales, were up 0.3% in October after being flat in September. Core retail sales factor into the goods component for personal consumption expenditures in the GDP report, so there is a little bit of good news here.

Big Picture

• The increase in retail sales trailed the robust 0.6% increase in aggregate earnings seen in the October employment report, suggesting consumers continue to show a propensity to save money and/or pay down debt versus spending it more liberally on goods.

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT

Highlights

• The preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November showed an uptick to 93.1 from the final reading of 90.0 for October and 88.8 in the same period a year ago. The Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 92.0.

Key Factors

• The improvement in November was driven by higher readings for both the Current Economic Conditions Index (to 104.8 from 102.3) and the Index of Consumer Expectations (to 85.6 from 82.1).
• According to the chief economist for the survey, the overall increase was attributed to a stronger outlook for the domestic economy, which was fed by consumers anticipating somewhat larger income increases in 2016 and a somewhat lower inflation rate.
• It was noted separately that buying plans for large discretionary items, especially vehicles, improved.

Big Picture

• Consumer sentiment has little influence on consumption. As long as payroll levels continue to expand, the resulting income growth should keep consumption gains steady regardless of the monthly ebbs and flows in sentiment.

BUSINESS INVENTORIES

Highlights

• Total business inventories increased 0.3% in September on top of an upwardly revised 0.1% increase for August (from 0.0%). The Briefing.com consensus expected inventories to be unchanged.

Key Factors

• Manufacturer inventories (-0.4%) and merchant wholesaler inventories (+0.5%) were already known, so retailer inventories were the final piece of the puzzle. 
• Retailer inventories were up 0.8% in September versus a 0.5% jump in August.
• The breakdown of retailer inventories showed inventory increases for all major retail sectors, led by motor vehicles and parts dealers (+1.4%), furniture and home furnishing stores (+1.0%), and department stores (+0.7%).
• The inventory-to-sales ratio edged up to 1.38 in September from 1.37 in August. In September 2014, the inventory-to-sales ratio stood at 1.31.

Big Picture

• Business inventories include wholesale inventories, manufacturing inventories, and retail inventories. Inventories are a component of GDP, and thus are of interest to economists, but the financial markets don't pay much attention to this release. Despite better inventory management techniques, inventory growth has outpaced sales for the past few years.

Market Internals

NYSE:

Higher Volumes than the day before – 947.5M vs 878.7M 


Decliners outpaced Advancers (adv/dec): 1153 / 1905

New Lows outpaced New Highs (highs/lows): 19 / 214

NASDAQ:

Higher Volumes than the day before – 1983.4M vs 1806.9M

Decliners outpaced Advancers (adv/dec): 1053 / 1794

New Lows outpaced New Highs (highs/lows): 24 / 203

VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX)
20.08 +1.71 (+9.31%)

I think the internals reflected some weakness despite a strong volume is recorded. However New Lows continue to increase higher. VIX also surge higher as it went up to test the resistance at around 20.00 level. If the VIX is going to break above 20, I suppose we should see the more correction in the market than I have expected, due to the lack of confidence.

Technical Updates

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ($INDU: CBOT)

17,245.24 -202.83 (-1.16%)

Volume: 134,640,975 (above average of 117,892,551)
Range: 17,238.89 - 17,439.25

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX ($COMPQ.IDX: NASDAQ)

4,927.88 -77.20 (-1.54%)

Volume: 444,546,772 (below average of 466,655,140)
Range: 4,925.35 - 4,989.06

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX: CBOE)

2,023.04 -22.93 (-1.12%)

Volume: 652,851,000 (below average of 657,002,176)
Range: 2,022.02 - 2,044.64

All 3 indices are somewhat approaching their 61.8% Fib levels. And that was a nice correction from their recent highs in the market. I reckon we might see the support likely to hold if there are going to  be more buying next week. And if it does, it might actually reflect an underlying confidence in the market. Having said so, market can still go anywhere from here.

Currencies

Dollar Rallies in Risk Sell-Off

• The U.S. Dollar Index rallied 0.36% to 99.00 despite weaker-than-expected economic data for October
  • Retail sales rose 0.1% m/m in October, short of the Briefing.com consensus for growth of 0.3%. Sales grew 0.1% in September
    • Retail sales excluding automobiles grew 0.2% in October, missing the Briefing.com consensus for 0.4%. The prior reading in the data series was -0.3%
  • The producer price index fell 0.4% in October, well short of the Briefing.com consensus of 0.1% growth
    • The core PPI declined 0.3% versus the Briefing.com consensus for a 0.1% rise
• EUR/USD: -0.56% to $1.0743
  • Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% q/q in the third quarter. GDP had grown 0.4% in Q2; 1.6% y/y, 1.5% in Q2
  • The eurozone's trade surplus grew more than expected to EUR 20.5 bln in September from EUR 11.2 bln in August
  • Portugal's BBB rating was reaffirmed by ratings agency DBRS with outlook stable, meaning that the European Central Bank can continue to buy its sovereign debt
• GBP/USD: unch at $1.5230
  • The Conference Board's Leading Index fell 0.3% m/m in September, reversing a downwardly revised 0.1% rise in August
• USD/CHF: +0.62% to 1.0071
  • Switzerland's producer price index unexpectedly rose 0.2% m/m in October, reversing a 0.1% decline in September
• USD/JPY: +0.16% to 122.72
  • Japanese industrial production rose 1.1% m/m in September, beating estimates and the 1.0% growth from August
    • The Tertiary Industry Activity Index unexpectedly fell 0.4% m/m in September, reversing an upwardly revised 0.2% gain in August
    • Capacity utilization climbed 1.5% m/m in September after falling 0.9% in August
• USD/CAD: +0.20% to 1.3313
• AUD/USD: -0.03% to $0.7128
• NZD/USD: -0.07% to $0.6536

Bonds

Treasuries Rally on Weak Data, Dovish ECB, and Lower Oil Prices

• U.S. Treasuries rallied today on weak U.S. economic data, lower crude oil prices, and an extension of the two-week sell-off in the stock market. Retail sales, core retail sales, the PPI, and the core PPI all missed expectations. The probability of a deposit rate cut at the European Central Bank's December meeting also rose after comments from ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday. The 10-year Bund yield fell 14 basis points this week, and that strength may have helped support Treasury prices (which move inversely to yields) as well 
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -3 bps to 0.85%
  • 5-yr: -5 bps to 1.66%
  • 10-yr: -4 bps to 2.28%
  • 30-yr: -3 bps to 3.06%

• News:
  • Retail sales rose 0.1% m/m in October, short of the Briefing.com consensus for growth of 0.3%. Sales grew 0.1% in September
    • Retail sales excluding automobiles grew 0.2% in October, missing the Briefing.com consensus for 0.4%. The prior reading in the data series was -0.3%
  • The producer price index fell 0.4% in October, well short of the Briefing.com consensus of 0.1% growth
    • The core PPI declined 0.3% versus the Briefing.com consensus for a 0.1% rise
  • Business inventories in the U.S. grew 0.3% m/m in September versus the Briefing.com consensus for no change. Business inventories rose 0.1% in August, revised up from no change
    • Manufacturer inventories (-0.4%) and merchant wholesaler inventories (+0.5%) were already known, so retailer inventories were the final piece of the puzzle. They were up 0.8% in September versus a 0.5% jump in August
  • The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 93.1 in November from 90.0 in October. The Briefing.com consensus estimate was 92.0
  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester spoke publicly today. She does not currently vote on the FOMC but she will do so in 2016 and she is on the hawkish side of the FOMC
    • She said that the big jump in job growth for October is unlikely to happen in November; she sees GDP growth returning to 2.5-2.75% into the end of 2016; Mester said that job growth of 75-120K/month is break-even for unemployment

• Commodities:
  • WTI crude: -2.32% to $40.78/bbl.
  • Gold: +0.02% to $1,081.20/troy oz.
  • Copper: -0.37% to $2.1645/lb.

• Currencies:
  • EUR/USD: -0.57% to $1.0741
  • USD/JPY: +0.15% to 122.71

• Week Ahead:
  • Monday: November Empire Manufacturing (08:30 ET)
  • Tuesday: October CPI and Core CPI (08:30 ET); October Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (09:15 ET); November NAHB Housing Market Index (10:00 ET); September Net Long-Term TIC Flows (16:00 ET)
  • Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Index for the week ending 11/14 (07:00 ET); Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-FOMC voter) and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC voter) participate in “Federal Reserve Perspectives” discussion (08:00 ET); October Housing Starts and Building Permits (08:30 ET); Crude Inventories for the week ending 11/14 (10:30 ET); October FOMC Minutes (14:00 ET)
  • Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 11/14 and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending 11/07 (08:30 ET); November Philadelphia Fed (08:30 ET); October Leading Indicators (10:00 ET); Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 11/14 (10:30 ET); Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC voter) (11:30 ET); 10-year TIPS auction reopening (results at 13:00 ET)
  • Friday: San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) participates in “U.S. Monetary Policy Developments” (13:00 ET)

Treasury Yields:

• 2 Year Note 0.86% -0.03
• 5 Year Note 1.67% -0.06
• 10 Year Note 2.28% -0.04
• 30 Year Bond 3.06% -0.03

2/30 Spread: 220 bps ( UNCH ) … 2/10 Spread: 142 bps ( -1 )

Preview for the week Monday 16 Nov to Friday 20 Nov, 2015

Economic Data

Monday (16 Nov) :

• Empire Manufacturing : -6.0 (Prior -11.4)

Tuesday (17 Nov) :

• CPI : 0.2% (Prior -0.2%)
• Core CPI : 0.2% (Prior 0.2%)
• Industrial Production : 0.1% (Prior -0.2%)
• Capacity Utilization : 77.5% (Prior 77.5%)
• NAHB Housing Market Index : 64.5 (Prior 64)
• Net Long-Term TIC Flows : (Prior $20.4B)

Wednesday (18 Nov) : 

• MBA Mortgage Index : (Prior -1.3%)
• Housing Starts : 1173K (Prior 1206K)
• Building Permits : 1137K (Prior 1103K)
• Crude Inventories : (Prior 4.22M) 
• FOMC Minutes 

Thursday (19 Nov) :

• Initial Claims : 272K (Prior 276K)
• Continuing Claims : 2164K (Prior 2174K)
• Philadelphia Fed : -1.0 (Prior -4.5)
• Leading Indicators : 0.6% (Prior -0.2%)
• Natural Gas Inventories : (Prior 49 bcf)

Friday (20 Nov) : 

• No Economic Data

Earnings Highlights 

Monday (16 Nov) :

BMO 

DDS JD MDLY ANY

AMC

ADRO A MATW NORD NUAN UPLD URBN

Tuesday (17 Nov) :

BMO

CMCM DKS HD JASO KLIC SOL TJX WMT

AMC

ARWR JACK LZB MTSI VIPS ZPIN

Wednesday (18 Nov) :

BMO

ARMK EJ EROS LEJU LITB LOW SFUN SPLS TGT TOUR

AMC

CLDX CTRP FGL GEOS GBDC HI GMCR LB NK NTAP CRM SMTC SINA VTVT WB

Thursday (19 Nov) :

BMO

WMS BBY BONT BRC BKE CATO GMAN IKGH SJM DATE JKS KIRK LQDT PERY SHLD SPB SSI SMRT

AMC

ANW CRMY ASYS ADSK ENTA ESL GPS HAYN INTU JMEI KEYS MRVL MENT MOMO NGVC NMBL ROST SPLK SPWH TFM WAIR WSM WDAY ZOES

Friday (20 Nov) : 

BMO

ANF ORPN DXLG FL HIBB SIRO

AMC

None Scheduled

Summary

Last week we saw the market kinda free-falling to the downside. As it is approaching the key support levels, I think this is where the dip buyers would probably come in together with some short-covering to take some profits off the table. Be ready to see some reversal next week.

I am not sure if the incident at France would trigger off more selling in the market, but if it does it is going to be a temporary event. Next week economic data remain light but we will be expecting the FOMC Minutes released on Wednesday.

Meanwhile I am praying for France and peace.

Direction for Monday 16 Nov, 2015: Down

Direction for the week Monday 16 Nov to Friday 20 Nov, 2015: Up

2015 Daily Directional Accuracy: 116/181  (64.09%) 

2015 Weekly Directional Accuracy: 26/42 (61.90%)