Friday, 16 Jan 2015 - AMC

Dow +190.86 at 17511.57, Nasdaq +63.56 at 4634.38, S&P +26.75 at 2019.42

Market has been going on a wild ride right now. Judging from the market sentiment, I don't think the bulls are coming back anytime soon. In other words I am expecting a bearish session to end the week.

Direction for Friday 16 Jan, 2015; Down

It seems like a technical rebound to me. Maybe it is more to a short-covering session. On top of that we are expecting a long weekend so perhaps that gave the market some little push.      

Market Summary

Industry Watch

Strong: Energy, Health Care, Materials, Telecom Services

Weak: Industrials, Utilities

Other Market Moving Factor:

• S&P 500 looks to end five-day losing streak: down 2.1% week-to-date
• Crude oil defends overnight gain
• Goldman Sachs (GS) and Intel (INTC) report better than expected results

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages snapped their five-day losing streak with a broad-based advance on Friday. The S&P 500 (+1.3%) reclaimed its 100-day moving average (2,007) and narrowed its weekly decline to 1.2%. 

The stock market was on shaky footing in the early going, but the overall risk tolerance was improved by a rebound in crude oil, which continued climbing throughout the session to end higher by 4.6% at $48.50/bbl. That advance bolstered the energy sector (+3.2%), which spent the day in the lead. 

Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical groups ended a bit closer to their flat lines. The materials sector (+1.7%) outperformed with help from steelmakers and miners while the discretionary sector (+1.3%) settled in line with the broader market. As for the remaining three growth-sensitive groups, financials (+1.2%), industrials (+0.7%), and technology (+0.9%) spent the day behind the broader market. 

The financial sector could not catch up to the S&P 500 as Goldman Sachs (GS 177.23, -1.26) weighed. The stock fell 0.7% despite better than expected results from the investment bank. Also of note, foreign exchange broker FXCM (FXCM 12.63, 0.00) agreed to terms on a $300 million lifeline provided by Leucadia National (LUK 21.84, +0.20) after yesterday's surge in the Swiss franc caused about $225 million in negative client balances at FXCM. Shares of FXCM were halted throughout the session after surrendering almost 90.0% in pre-market action. 

Elsewhere, the technology sector struggled to keep pace with the market as Apple (AAPL 105.94, -0.88) weighed. The largest sector component lost 0.8% while most other heavily-weighted tech names settled with gains. On the earnings front, Intel (INTC 36.45, +0.26) gained 0.7% after beating bottom-line estimates. For its part, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.1%) ended just behind the S&P 500. 

Over on the countercyclical side, consumer staples (+0.8%) and utilities (+0.9%) underperformed throughout the day while telecom services (+1.7%) and health care (+1.9%) spent the day among the leaders. The health care sector was bolstered by high-beta biotechnology names, evidenced by a 3.3% gain in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 317.82, +10.12). The ETF was able to add 1.4% for the week versus a slim uptick of 0.2% for the health care sector. 

Treasuries notched their highs in the early morning before spending the session in a steady retreat that sent the benchmark 10-yr yield higher by 11 basis points to 1.82%. 

Friday's participation was ahead of average with 950 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor. 

Economic data included CPI, Industrial Production, and Michigan Sentiment: 

• The CPI declined 0.4% in December after declining 0.3% in November while the Briefing.com Consensus expected a decline of 0.4% 
  • Prices are up only 0.8% year-over-year, which is the smallest increase since October 2009 
  • The energy index, which has fallen for the past six consecutive months, declined 4.7% in December 
  • Food prices increased 0.3% in December, up from a 0.2% increase in November 
  • Excluding food and energy, core CPI was flat in December (consensus +0.1%) after increasing 0.1% in November 
• Industrial production declined 0.1% in December after increasing an unrevised 1.3% in November (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) 
  • The decline in industrial production can be blamed on warmer-than-normal temperatures that reduced the demand for heating. According to the National Climatic Data Center, December 2014 was the second warmest December on record. That was a large reversal from November, which was the coldest November since 2000. The shift in temperatures resulted in a 7.3% decline in utilities production 
  • Capacity utilization hit 79.7% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 79.9% 
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 98.2 in the preliminary January reading from 93.6 in December while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 94.1 
  • That was the highest reading since the index reached 103.8 in January 2004 

Bond and equity markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day. 

On Tuesday, the NAHB Housing Market Index will be released at 10:00 ET. 

• Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.8% YTD 
• S&P 500 -1.9% YTD 
• Nasdaq Composite -2.2% YTD 
• Russell 2000 -2.5% YTD 

Week in Review: Slipping and Sliding 

The stock market began the week on the defensive with the Nasdaq (-0.8%) and S&P 500 (-0.8%) pacing the Monday slide. The Dow (-0.5%) and Russell 2000 (-0.3%) outperformed, but the two indices also spent the bulk of the day in negative territory. Equities opened the trading day with slim gains that evaporated during the first few minutes of the session. The S&P 500 slumped back below its 50-day moving average (2046) at the start and spent the rest of the day well below that level as influential sectors weighed. Most notably, the energy sector (-2.8%) was the weakest performer with crude oil contributing to the pressure after Goldman Sachs lowered its short-term forecast for the commodity. WTI crude ended the pit session on its low, down 4.9% at $46.07/bbl. Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical groups registered slimmer losses, but heavily-weighted financials (-0.9%) and technology (-1.3%) kept the market under pressure throughout the session. 

The major averages enjoyed broad-based support at the start of the Tuesday session, but the opposite was true when the trading day ended. The S&P 500 lost 0.3% with eight sectors settling in the red. The final standing masked the fact that the benchmark index was up in excess of 1.0% at the start of the day. The S&P 500 spent the first 90 minutes near its high, but the absence of intraday buying interest opened the door to a retreat that accelerated when the S&P cut through its 50-day moving average (2046/2047). Commodity-related sectors fueled the pullback from highs with energy (-0.7%) and materials (-1.2%) ending the day at the bottom of the barrel. The two groups struggled to keep pace with the market in the early going and their underperformance became more notable during the afternoon retreat. 

Equities endured their fourth consecutive decline on Wednesday with the S&P 500 (-0.6%) making an intraday appearance below its 100-day moving average (2,007). The tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed, but still lost 0.5%. Stocks faced selling pressure from the start after the overnight session failed to alleviate the growth concerns that contributed to the recent weakness. Instead, the concerns grew larger, starting with the World Bank's reduced growth outlook for 2015 (to 3.0% from 3.4%) and 2016 (to 3.3% from 3.5%). The lowered outlook pressured commodities, and especially copper, which remained under pressure throughout the day, ending lower by 4.9% at $2.51/lb after hitting a low near the $2.45/lb level. Crude oil, however, traded in the red during morning action, but rocketed into the pit close, which helped the broader market climb off its intraday low. The energy component spiked 5.7% to $48.55/bbl. 

The stock market continued its rough week on Thursday with the S&P 500 (-0.9%) registering its fifth consecutive decline after failing to hold the 100-day moving average (2007). The price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%) fared a bit better while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.5%) and Russell 2000 (-1.7%) underperformed. Market participants were greeted by an astounding move in the foreign exchange market. Specifically, the Swiss franc was up as much as 25.0% against the dollar after the Swiss National Bank abandoned the EURCHF 1.20 floor and lowered the benchmark deposit rate to -0.75%. The move was likely taken in anticipation of a QE announcement from the ECB, and the dollar/franc pair was able to narrow its loss to 15.0% (0.8687); however, that was still large enough to resonate with investors who were lulled into a false sense of security by the SNB's pledge to maintain the exchange rate floor. Equity indices began the day with slim gains, but the morning strength faded alongside crude oil, which slid from a session high at $51.00/bbl to $46.57/bbl. The energy component ended the day lower by 4.1%, but that masked the fact that crude fell almost 9.0% from its best level of the day. Furthermore, that pullback was closely correlated with a broad-market slide, which was paced by cyclical sectors.

DOW

NASDAQ

S&P

Macroeconomic Data

Economic Data

from Briefing.com

• CPI : -0.4% vs -0.4% (Prior -0.3%)
• Core CPI : 0.0% vs 0.1% (Prior 0.1%)
• Industrial Production : -0.1% vs -0.1% (Prior 1.3%)
• Capacity Utilization : 79.7% vs 79.9% (Prior 80.0%)
• Michigan Sentiment : 98.2 vs 94.1 (Prior 93.6)
• Net Long-Term TIC Flows : $33.5B (Prior -$1.4B)

CPI

Highlights

• The CPI declined 0.4% in December after declining 0.3% in November. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the CPI to decline 0.4%.
• Excluding food and energy, core CPI was flat in December after increasing 0.1% in November. The Briefing.com Consensus expected core CPI to increase 0.1%.

Key Factors

• Worries about inflation trends are unneeded. Prices are up only 0.8% year-over-year, which is the smallest increase since October 2009.
• As expected, the large drop in crude and gasoline prices weighed down overall consumer prices. The energy index, which has fallen for the past six consecutive months, declined 4.7% in December. Gasoline prices declined 9.4% after declining 6.6% in November.
• Food prices increased 0.3% in December, up from a 0.2% increase in November.
• Year-over-year, core CPI is up only 1.6%, down from a 1.7% increase in November. Typically, the CPI runs about 0.5 percentage points below the PCE price index. Thus, current inflation trends are about 1.0 percentage point below target and are downward trending.
• There was nothing in the core data that would suggest an impending increase in consumer prices. 
• Medical care prices increased 0.5% in December, which was the largest increase since August 2013. However, that price gain was offset by price declines across a variety of sectors including: apparel (-1.2%), education and communication commodities (-0.8%), recreation commodities (-0.3%), and new (-0.1%) and used (-1.2%) vehicles.

Big Picture

• For the past two years, year-over-year core CPI growth averaged 1.8% with very little volatility. That is well below the Fed's implied CPI target of roughly 2.5%.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

Highlights

• Industrial production declined 0.1% in December after increasing an unrevised 1.3% in November. The Briefing.com Consensus expected industrial production to fall 0.1%.

Key Factors

• The decline in industrial production can be blamed on warmer-than-normal temperatures that reduced the demand for heating. According to the National Climatic Data Center, December 2014 was the second warmest December on record.That was a large reversal from November, which was the coldest November since 2000. The shift in temperatures resulted in a 7.3% decline in utilities production.
• Manufacturing production remained firm even though the regional and national ISM surveys were leaning slightly negative. Manufacturing production increased 0.3% in December, down from an upwardly revised 1.3% (from 1.1%) in November.
• Motor vehicle assemblies were down slightly in December to 11.87 mln SAAR from 11.95 mln SAAR in November. Auto assemblies increased to 4.67 mln SAAR from 4.41 mln SAAR while truck assemblies declined to 7.19 mln SAAR from 7.55 mln SAAR. In all, motor vehicle and parts production declined 0.9% in December after increasing 5.5% in November.
• Excluding motor vehicles and parts production, manufacturing production increased 0.4% in December, down from a 1.0% gain in November.
• Mining production, which declined in both November (-0.3%) and October (-1.5%), rebounded and increased 2.2% in December. The increase in mining production, however, not expected to continue. Low crude prices have made much of the fracking industry uneconomical, and drilling activities will slow.

Big Picture

• Industrial production increased 4.9% in 2014, up from a 3.3% increase in 2013, and was the largest increase since 2010.

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT

Highlights

• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 98.2 in the preliminary January reading from 93.6 in December. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the index to increase to 94.1 in January.

Key Factors

• That was the highest reading since the index reached 103.8 in January 2004.
• The Expectations Index increased to 91.6 in January from 86.4 in December, which was also the strongest reading since January 2004. The Present Conditions Index increased to 108.3 from 104.8, which was the best reading since January 2007.
• The move in consumer sentiment follows large declines in gasoline prices and a sharp reduction in unemployment. 
• Growth in consumer sentiment, however, may be short lived. The index also typically follows trends in equity prices, and the current downward slide in the stock market may make consumers rethink their assessment of the economy.
• The increase in consumer sentiment is unlikely to have much of an impact on consumption. Consumption trends rely on income growth, and - as the contraction in December wages clearly showed - without income gains, consumption growth cannot follow.

Big Picture

• Consumer sentiment has little influence on consumption. As long as payroll levels continue to expand, the resulting income growth should keep consumption gains steady regardless of the monthly ebbs and flows in sentiment.

Market Internals

NYSE:

Higher Volumes than the day before – 961.9M vs 879.6M 


Advancers outpaced Decliners (adv/dec): 2528 / 582

New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 242 / 90

NASDAQ:

Higher Volumes than the day before – 1929.6M vs 1951.9M

Advancers outpaced Decliners (adv/dec): 2087 / 691

New Lows outpaced New Highs (highs/lows): 43 / 111

VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX)

20.95 -1.44 (-6.43%)

Internals are certainly showing some bullishness getting back in the market with VIX managed to close lower as well. Despite that VIX is still hovering above 21.00, so chances are fear is still around and that could bring the market down. But we can see that VIX is near to the upper bound of the Bollinger band...  

Technical Updates

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ($INDU: CBOT)

17,511.57 +190.86 (+1.10%)

Volume: 140,475,944 (above average of 88,908,561)

Range: 17,243.55 - 17,528.37

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX ($COMPQ.IDX: NASDAQ)

4,634.38 +63.56 (+1.39%)

Volume: 548.7M (above average of 455,030,056)

Range: 4,563.11 - 4,635.82

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX: CBOE)

2,019.42 +26.75 (+1.34%)

Volume: 731,828,000 (above average of 517,866,677)

Range: 1,988.12 - 2,020.46 

The indices basically rebound at their respective support/resistance level. Seems like those are the significant level. MACD is showing the divergence here. But whether is this a dead cat bounce we have to see how the market opens next week.

Commodities

Closing Commodities: WTI Crude Rallies In Afternoon Trade, Closes Above $48/Barrel

• WTI crude oil futures rallied in afternoon trading and into the close of pit trading today, rising as high as $48.87/barrel
• At the end of the session, Feb crude rose $2.14 to $48.50/barrel
• Natural gas lost some steam today and lost 4 cents to $3.13/MMBtu
• Precious metals and copper found some buyers in afternoon trade, which extended gains in these metals
• Feb gold rose +$11.80 to $1276.40/oz, while Mar silver gained 0.65 to $17.75/oz
• Mar copper trended higher since the early morning session, closing 6 cents higher at $2.62/lb.

Energy Price Action

• Feb crude oil rose $2.14/barrel to $48.50/barrel
• Natural gas fell 4 cents to $3.13/MMBtu
• RBOB Gasoline closed 5 cents higher to $1.35/gallon
• Heating oil rose 3 cents to $1.66/gallon

Agricultural Price Action

• Mar corn closed $0.06 higher at $3.86/bushel
• Mar wheat fell $0.02 cents to $5.32/bushel
• Feb soybeans ended $0.01 lower at $9.91/bushel
• Ethanol closed $0.04 higher at $1.35/gallon
• Sugar #11 rose 0.40 cents to 15.33 cents/gallon

Metals Price Action

• Feb gold ended today’s session $11.80 higher at $1276.40/oz
• Mar silver ended $0.65 higher at $17.75/oz
• Mar copper closed $0.06 higher to $2.62/lb

Currencies 

Relentless Dollar Grinds Higher:

• The Dollar Index readies for its best close in more than 11 years. 
• An early bid ran action above the 93.00 level, but some late-morning selling has pushed the greenback back into the 92.80 area. 
• EURUSD is -90 pips @ 1.15470. The single currency fell below the 1.1500 level early in U.S. trade as Final CPI printed -0.2%, fueling speculation the ECB will launch a QE-type program at next week's meeting. Also making headlines was a report out of Greece suggesting banks are requesting emergency liquidity as depositors pull money ahead of the January 25 election. 
• GBPUSD is -40 pips @ 1.5140. Sterling saw an early bid run action up to the 1.5235 level, but the bulls were unable to take out the highs of the previous two days. The failure at that level has caused many to turn their focus back towards 1.5100. 
• USDCHF is +245 pips @ .8630 as the pair claws back some of the previous day's losses. The fallout from yesterday's Swiss National Bank shocker has caused financial institutions around the globe to come clean on their sizable losses. The .8400 area will be watched closely as action attempts to put in a tradable bottom. Swiss PPI is scheduled to cross the wires on Monday. 
• USDJPY is +135 pips @ 117.50 as buyers take control for the first time in six sessions. Support at the 116.00 level has held up in each of the past three sessions, causing many to turn their focus to 118.00 resistance and the 50 dma (118.50). 
• AUDUSD is +10 pips @ .8225 as trade flirts with its best close in a month. Resistance near .8300 is defended by the 50 dma (.8332). Australia's new motor vehicle will be released Sunday evening. 
• USDCAD is +25 pips @ 1.1985. The pair has struggled at the psychologically important 1.2000 level for the past week. Canadian data set for Monday is limited to foreign securities purchases.

Bonds

The Week in Review: 30Y Sinks to All-Time Low 

• Treasuries rallied throughout the week and extended their streak to 15 gains in 16 sessions.
• Rate differentials with Europe remained a driver as money continued to pour into higher yielding U.S. debt
• Aiding the advance was the decision by the Swiss National Bank to end its EUCHF1.20 floor. The announcement caused panic all over the world and pushed money into the safety of the complex. 
• U.S. economic data was mixed. Retail sales (-0.9% actual v. +0.1% expected) and Philly Fed (9.9 actual v. 6.5 expected) missed while Empire Manufacturing (9.9 actual v. 6.5 expected) and Michigan Sentiment (98.2 actual v. 94.1 expected) outpaced estimates. Pricing pressures were mixed as Core PPI (0.3% actual v. 0.1% expected) was hot and Core CPI (0.0% actual v. 0.1% expected) was cool.
• This week's auctions started off strong, but disappointed as they progressed. 
• Monday's strong $24B 3Y note auction drew 92.6bps and a 3.33x bid/cover. Indirect bidders (45.8%) provided support as directs (14.8%) were a bit light. Primary dealers were left with just 39.4% of the supply.
• Tuesday's $21B 10Y note reopening disappointed. The reopening drew 1.930% (WI 1.916%) and a light 2.61x bid/cover. Indirect (50.0%) and direct (9.2%) bids both missed their 12-auction averages, leaving primary dealers with 40.8% of the supply. 
• Wednesday's $13B 30Y bond reopening was tepid. The reopening drew 2.430% (WI 2.411%) and a light 2.32x bid/cover. Indirect bids (48.9%) provided support as directs (13.7%) missed their 12-auction averages. Primary dealers ended up with 37.4% of the supply. 
• Up front, the 2Y fell -10bps to 47.6bps. The yield broke below support in the 55bp area on its way to printing at levels last seen around Halloween. 
• In the belly, the 5Y eased -16bps to 1.283%. This week's action dropped the yield to its lowest levels since June 2013. 
• The 10Y shed -16bps to 1.815%. On Friday, the benchmark yield hit a 20-month of 1.700% before seeing a sharp reversal. 
• Buying at the long end pushed the 30Y down -12bps to 2.435%. This week's action dropped the yield on the long bond to a record low 2.353%. 
• A flatter curve took hold as the 2-10-yr spread tightened to 134bps. 

The Week Ahead 

• Markets are closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. 
• Tuesday's data is limited to the NHAB Housing Market Index (10). 
• Wednesday will see the weekly MBA Mortgage Index (7), housing starts, and building permits (8:30). 
• Data continues to flow on Thursday as initial and continuing claims (8:30), and FHFA Housing Price Index (9) are released. 
• Data for the week concludes on Friday with existing home sales and leading indicators (10).

Treasury Yields:

• 2 Year Note 0.49% +0.05
• 5 Year Note 1.29% +0.07
• 10 Year Note 1.83% +0.06
• 30 Year Bond 2.44% +0.04

2/30 Spread: 195 bps ( -1 ) …  2/10 Spread: 134 bps ( +1 )

Preview for the week Tuesday 20 Jan to Friday 23 Jan, 2015

Earnings Highlights

Tuesday :
BMO - IGTE, JNJ, MTG, EDU, OMN
AMC - ADTN, AMD, CLS, IBM, NFLX

Wednesday :
BMO - APH, GD, VIVO, NTRS, AMTD
AMC - AXP, BGG, CNS, EGBN, EBAY

Thursday :
BMO - COV, NTCT, SASR, TZOO, WBS
AMC - ASB, COF, CE, COBZ, FFIN

Friday : 
BMO - FGFN, MOG.A, PB, COL, STT
AMC - None Scheduled

Summary

Friday ended the losing streak in the market. Even though the week still ended in red. Uncertainty in oil prices, decreasing in copper price, and Swiss shocking cut in interest rate (to negative) made the week hell of a ride. Not to mention it is the start of the earnings season. I am sure the volatility is going to stick around until at least post-earnings period.

Do note that market is closed on Monday, 19 Jan due to Martin Luther King Day.

Direction for Tuesday 20 Jan, 2015; Up

Direction for the week Tuesday 20 Jan to Friday 23 Jan, 2015; Up

2015 Daily Directional Accuracy: 3/10 (30.00%) 
2015 Weekly Directional Accuracy: 1/2 (50.00%)