Friday, 23 Jan 2015 - AMC

Dow -141.38 at 17672.60, Nasdaq +7.48 at 4757.88, S&P -11.33 at 2051.82

It seems like my calls are getting more wrong than right. Well that gives me more learning opportunity. No harm.

I think no one is going to let the QE in the Eurozone to stop the market from getting higher. Perhaps some profit-taking along the way?

Direction for Friday 23 Jan, 2015; Up

Market gave it up at the last 2 hours but NASDAQ managed to hold its gain. The session was literally flat and to me the market somehow does not want to break higher. This actually shows the lack of action from the bulls...             

Market Summary

Industry Watch

Strong: Energy, Technology, Utilities

Weak: Consumer Staples, Industrials, Materials, Telecom Services

Other Market Moving Factor:

• S&P 500 seeks fifth consecutive advance (enters +2.2% week-to-date)
• Dollar strength persists
• UPS issues below consensus guidance due to underperformance in U.S. domestic segment

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market capped a solid week with a shaky Friday session. The S&P 500 lost 0.6%, but still gained 1.6% for the week while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) was able to register its fifth consecutive advance. 

Equity indices began the day amid selling activity that started in the futures market after UPS (UPS 102.93, -11.32) issued disappointing guidance due to weakness in the U.S. domestic segment. The logistics company plunged below its 100-day moving average to end lower by 9.9%. The big loss weighed on the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which lost 1.8% and pressured the industrial sector (-0.8%). 

The S&P 500 followed the opening slip with an eight-point rally off its morning low after European Central Bank member Benoit Coeure said the bank will need to do more if the quantitative easing program that was announced yesterday does not produce the desired outcome. 

Despite the morning charge off session lows, the index never made it into the green and slid to a new low during the final hour of the trading day. The industrial sector kept the pressure on the market throughout the day while other influential groups like financials (-1.0%) and consumer staples (-1.1%) kept the S&P 500 from moving into the green. 

The financial sector struggled despite better than expected reports from a slew of regional banks. The economically-sensitive group widened its January decline to 3.5% in response to a combination of slow global growth and sinking yields around the world. 

Elsewhere, the consumer staples sector hovered near the bottom of the leaderboard after Kimberly-Clark (KMB 111.65, -7.33) reported below-consensus results and issued cautious guidance, which failed to justify the company's rich valuation. 

Also of note, the energy space (-0.9%) spent the bulk of the day in-line with the market, but finished among the laggards as crude oil remained weak. The energy component showed overnight volatility after it was reported Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah has died. 

WTI crude was able to make an intraday appearance in the green, but ended lower by 1.8% at $45.56/bbl. Once again, dollar strength was a headwind with the Dollar Index (94.92, +0.86) spiking 0.9%. 

On the upside, utilities (+0.3%) and technology (+0.2%) were the only two advancers. The utilities sector solidified its spot atop the January leaderboard (+4.2%) while technology received support from large cap names. Chipmakers were not as fortunate with the PHLX Semiconductor Index ending lower by 0.3%. The high-beta group finished ahead of the S&P 500, but behind the tech sector after KLA-Tencor(KLAC 65.42, -5.53) issued disappointing guidance that overshadowed better than expected results. 

Outside of technology, the consumer discretionary sector (-0.2%) was the only other group able to finish near its flat line. Starbucks (SBUX 88.12, +5.38) soared 6.5% even though its in-line report featured below-consensus guidance for the second quarter while McDonald's (MCD 89.56, -1.33) lost 1.5% after missing estimates and priming the market for negative comparable store sales in January. 

Treasuries ended near their highs with the 10-yr yield sliding six basis points to 1.80%. Meanwhile, the long bond spiked to pressure its yield to the lowest close on record (2.39%). 

Participation was a bit below average with roughly 765 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor. 

Economic data was limited to Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators: 

• Existing home sales increased 2.4% in December to 5.04 million SAAR from a downwardly revised 4.92 million SAAR (from 4.93 million SAAR) in November while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 5.10 million SAAR. 
  • Improvements in the labor market, gains in stock prices, and a general decline in mortgage rates were not enough to boost housing demand in 2014. For the year, 4.93 million homes were sold, which was down 3.1% from the 5.09 million homes sold in 2013 
• The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.5% in December (consensus 0.5%) after increasing a downwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.6%) in November 

There is no economic data on Monday's schedule, but investors will be responding to the results of the Greek election and its implications for financial markets. 

• Nasdaq Composite +0.5% YTD 
• S&P 500 -0.3% YTD 
• Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.8% YTD 
• Russell 2000 -1.1% YTD 

Week in Review: Action Driven By Central Banks 

Bond and equity markets were closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day 

The stock market kicked off the holiday-shortened week with a shaky Tuesday session. The S&P 500 settled higher by 0.2% after finding intraday support near its 100-day moving average (2007/2008). The tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed, climbing 0.4%. Equity indices started the day with modest gains, but continued weakness in crude oil weighed on the overall risk tolerance and contributed to an early retreat. However, a handful of influential sectors were able to withstand the selling pressure, which in turn became a supportive factor during afternoon action. As for crude, the energy component retreated after The International Monetary Fund cut its 2015 global growth outlook to 3.0% from 3.5%, and continued sliding throughout the session. WTI crude ended lower by 4.1% at $46.51/bbl while the energy sector (+0.1%) settled near its flat line. Baker Hughes (BHI) beat estimates, but announced plans to reduce its workforce by 7,000 employees. 

Equities enjoyed their third consecutive advance on Wednesday with the S&P 500 climbing 0.5%. The Wednesday session was filled with central bank-related storylines. The Bank of Japan got the ball rolling overnight by lowering its inflation outlook to 1.0% from 1.7%, which boosted the yen (117.80). The Bank of England was next on tap with the minutes from its latest policy meeting. The minutes were a bit surprising as Messrs. McCafferty and Weale, who previously voted in favor of rate hikes, rejoined the majority in their belief that hiking rates too early would prolong the period of low inflation. Global equities jumped off their lows in reaction to reports indicating the European Central Bank is set to propose EUR50 billion in asset purchases through 2016. The euro wobbled on the news before ending the day near 1.1590 against the dollar. In a surprising move, Germany's 10-yr note tumbled, sending the benchmark yield higher by seven basis points to 0.47%. The Bank of Canada completed the central bank bonanza with a surprise 25-basis point cut to 0.75% in response to crashing oil prices, which are expected to put downward pressure on Canadian inflation. The loonie retreated to its lowest level since early 2009, sending USDCAD to 1.2330 from 1.2070. 

The major averages registered their fourth consecutive advance on Thursday with the S&P 500 (+1.5%) reclaiming its 50-day moving average (2046/2047). The benchmark index erased its January loss while the Russell 2000 (+2.0%) displayed relative strength throughout the day. This week featured action from several major central banks and that extravaganza was topped off on Thursday when the European Central Bank announced the highly-anticipated launch of a quantitative easing program in the amount of EUR60 billion per month. In short, the program is aimed at stopping deflation that is due, in part, to low oil prices. However, the thought process behind the action is a bit questionable considering QE is expected to weigh on the euro, which will boost the dollar, thus putting pressure on dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil, which is at the root of eurozone's deflationary tilt.

DOW

NASDAQ

S&P

Macroeconomic Data

Economic Data

from Briefing.com

• Existing Home Sales : 5.04M vs 5.10M (Prior 4.92M)
• Leading Indicators : 0.5% vs 0.5% (Prior 0.4%)

EXISTING HOME SALES 

Highlights

• Existing home sales increased 2.4% in December to 5.04 mln SAAR from a downwardly revised 4.92 mln SAAR (from 4.93 mln SAAR) in November. The Briefing.com Consensus expected existing home sales to increase to 5.10 mln SAAR.

Key Factors

• Improvements in the labor market, gains in stock prices, and a general decline in mortgage rates were not enough to boost housing demand in 2014. For the year, 4.93 mln homes were sold. That was down 3.1% from the 5.09 mln homes sold in 2013.
• Sales in December were relatively strong compared to the yearly output, but the underlying conditions – namely inventories – remain restrictive. 
• Inventory levels plummeted 11.1% in December to 1.85 mln. At the current sales pace, inventory levels represented a 4.4 months’ supply. A 6 months’ supply is considered normal.
• First-time homebuyers accounted for 29% of total sales in December. That was down from 31% in November but up from 27% in December 2013. 
• Investor demand remains a large contributor to overall sales. Individual investors accounted for 17% of sales in December, up from 15% in November but down from 21% in December 2013. On a related note, all-cash sales –  which are made by a large number of investors – accounted for 26% of total December sales, up from 25% in November. These sales accounted for 32% of sales in December 2013.
• The median home price increased 6.0% y/y to $209,500 from $197,700 in December 2013.

Big Picture

• Improved affordability conditions in 2014 were not enough to boost demand and drive overall sales higher.

LEADING INDICATORS

Highlights

• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index increased 0.5% in December after increasing a downwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.6%) in November. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the index to increase 0.5%.

Key Factors

• Since 8 of the 10 components of the index are known prior to the release, the difference between the actual and consensus is generally small. In this case, there were no notable discrepancies between the Conference Board’s forecast for capital and consumer manufacturing orders and the consensus.
• Building permits, which reduced the index growth rate by 0.06 percentage points, was the only component to impact growth negatively.

Big Picture

• The Leading Economic Index points toward a generally improving economy.

Market Internals

NYSE:

Lower Volumes than the day before – 687.4M vs 890.4M 


Decliners outpaced Advancers (adv/dec): 1383 / 1700

New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 298 / 36

NASDAQ:

Lower Volumes than the day before – 1635.6M vs 1986.4M

Decliners outpaced Advancers (adv/dec): 1222 / 1529

New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 95 / 60

VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX)

16.66 +0.26 (+1.59%)

I am noticing more and more divergence in the internals. NASDAQ is showing more bearishness relative to its price level. Volumes are weak as well, and this reflects the lack of control from the bulls in the market. VIX is having a volatile session but ended flat too. Clearly showing the lack of direction in the market. 

Technical Updates

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ($INDU: CBOT)

17,672.60 -141.38 (-0.79%)

Volume: 97,113,735 (above average of 88,030,305)

Range: 17,667.53 - 17,812.50

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX ($COMPQ.IDX: NASDAQ)

4,757.88 +7.48 (+0.16%)

Volume: 414,941,163 (below average of 448,187,122)

Range: 4,737.95 - 4,771.18

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX: CBOE)

2,051.82 -11.33 (-0.55%)

Volume: 535,455,000 (above average of 510,899,600)

Range: 2,050.54 - 2,062.98 

The indices are facing their respective resistance line but unable to break higher. Given the lack in direction,  I think the market is likely to remain sideway before another breakout.

Commodities

Closing Commodities: Oil Ends Near LoD, Nat Gas Closes At HoD

• WTI crude oil prices lost steam late in the day and fell back below $46/barrel
• At the end of today’s session, Mar crude oil closed $0.82 lower at $45.56/barrel
• Natural gas held its gains and climbed higher today, on a colder-than-expected weather forecast, finishing at $2.98, up 5%
• Feb gold gained $9.10 to $1292.40/oz, while Mar silver ended $0.06 lower at $18.30/oz
• Mar copper sold off today, losing 3.1% to $2.50/lb

Energy Price Action

• Mar crude oil fell $0.82/barrel to $45.56/barrel
• Feb Natural gas rose $0.14 cents (or +5%) to $2.98/MMBtu
• RBOB Gasoline closed $0.04 cents higher to $1.37/gallon
• Heating oil $0.02 higher at $1.62/gallon

Agricultural Price Action

• Mar corn closed $0.03 higher at $3.87/bushel
• Mar wheat closed $0.05 lower at $5.29/bushel
• Feb soybeans ended $0.05 lower at $9.73/bushel
• Ethanol closed $0.04 higher at $1.43/gallon
• Sugar #11 fell 0.74 cents (or -5%) to 15.17 cents/gallon

Metals Price Action

• Feb gold ended today’s session $9.10 lower at $1292.40/oz
• Mar silver ended $0.06 lower at $18.30/oz
• Mar copper closed $0.08 lower to $2.50/lb

Currencies 

Dollar Fights for 95.00:

• The Dollar Index flirts with its first close above 95.00 since September 2003. 
• EURUSD is -145 pips @ 1.1220 as sellers remain in control following yesterday's announcement quantitative easing will begin in Europe. The single currency pressed to an 11-year low off 1.1115 early in U.S. trade before paring its losses. Greece's parliamentary elections are set for Sunday, providing some headline risk into the weekend as the anti-euro Syriza party is expected to mage large gains. Data scheduled for Monday is limited to German Ifo Business Climate. 
• GBPUSD is flat @ 1.5010 as action contends with its lowest close since July 2013. Sterling pressed below the psychologically important 1.5000 level despite the strong retail sales data, but has managed to reclaim the mark as selling exhausted. Britain's BBA Mortgage Approvals will be released on Monday. 
• USDCHF is +75 pips @ .8780 as trade fights for its best close since the Swiss National Bank surprise removal of its EURCHF1.20 floor. The past week has seen action bookended by .8400/.8800. 
• USDJPY is -75 pips @ 117.75 as trade holds near its worst levels of the day. The pair has tested resistance helped by the 50 dma (118.75) in each of the past four sessions, but remains unable to breakout. The 117.00 area is being watched closely as a break puts key support at 116.00 in focus. The trade balance and latest Bank of Japan minutes are set for release Sunday evening.
• AUDUSD is -105 pips @ .7920 as trade flushes to its worst level in five and a half years. The hard currency has come under pressure in recent days as fears have begun to surface the Reserve Bank of Australia will follow the Bank of Canada in cutting rates. Australian banks are closed Monday in observance of Australia Day. 
• USDCAD is +45 pips @ 1.2425, and at a six-year high. Today's bid comes as Canada's core retail sales (+0.7% MoM actual v. +0.5% MoM expected) outpaced estimates and Core CPI (-0.3% MoM) was in-line. The 1.3000 area is setting up as a key level.

Bonds

The Week in Review: Europe's QE Pushes Long End of U.S. Curve Lower

• Treasuries saw a mixed holiday-shortened week as selling took place up front while buyers were in charge in the back. 
• Sellers were in control early in the week, but an aggressive bid developed in response to the European Central Bank launching its QE program.
• The ECB announced it will purchase EUR60 bln worth of securities each month until September 2016. However, there has been talk the program will be open ended. 
• Money flooded into European sovereign debt in response to the initiative, pushing yields across the region to all-time lows. This caused money to move into the long end of the U.S. curve as traders played rate differentials.
• Recent declines in energy prices caused the Bank of Japan to lower its inflation forecast for the fiscal year to 1% (1.7% previous).
• A quiet week on the data front was mostly limited to housing numbers. Housing starts (1089K actual v. 1040K expected) posted the lone upside surprise while NAHB Housing Market Index (57 actual v. 58 expected), building permits (1032K actual v. 1060K expected), and existing home sales (5.04M actual v. 5.10M expected) missed. Elsewhere, leading indicators (0.5%) matched expectations. 
• Up front, the 2Y ticked up +1bp to 50bps. Current levels remain under close watch as the area has served as a key pivot since June. 
• In the belly, the 5Y edged up +2bps to 1.324%. Action probed the 1.400% level early Thursday, but pulled back after the ECB announced its QE program. 
• The 10Y fell -3bps to 1.817%. The benchmark yield ended the week near 1.800% support. 
• Outperformance at the long end pushed the 30Y down -6bps to 2.394%. The yield on the long bond ended the week with its lowest close ever. 
• Curve flattening persisted as the 2-10-yr spread tightened to 131.5bps. 

The Week Ahead 

• There is no data on Monday. 
• Data for the week kicks on Tuesday with durable orders (8:30), Case-Schiller 20-city Index (9), consumer confidence, and new home sales (10). Treasury will auction $26B 2Y notes.
• Wednesday's data is limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index (7). The latest FOMC rate decision (14) will be announced. Treasury will hold a $35B 5Y note auction. 
• Thursday's data includes initial and continuing claims (8:30) and pending home sales (10). Treasury will auction $29B 7Y notes.
• Friday's data is the most anticipated of the week as GDP-Adv., Employment Cost Index (8:30), Chicago PMI (9:45), and Michigan Sentiment - Final (9:55) are due out.

Treasury Yields:

• 2 Year Note 0.52% -0.01
• 5 Year Note 1.33% -0.06
• 10 Year Note 1.81% -0.09
• 30 Year Bond 2.38% -0.08

2/30 Spread: 186 bps ( -7 ) …  2/10 Spread: 129 bps ( -8 )

Preview for the week Monday 26 Jan to Friday 30 Jan, 2015

Earnings Highlights

Monday :
BMO - CFG, DHI, NSC, NVR, OSIS, PROV, ROP, STX, GWW

AMC - ASH, BOH, BBCN, BRO, CR, ELS, GGG, HTLF, HMST, JJSF, MSFT, MSTR, NBTB, PKG, PSEM, PLT, PCL, RMBS, RLI, SAHM, SHBI, SIMO, TXN, WIBC, ZION

Tuesday :
BMO - MMM, AOS, ABMD, AMG, AKS, AAL, AUDC, AVX, BMY, CAT, CIT, COH, GLW, DHR, DOV, DD, FCFS, FMER, FCX, GK, IIVI, ITW, ISSI, ISCA, LXK, ERIC, LMT, MNRO, NEE, NVS, NUE, OSK, PH, BTU, PFE, PHG, PII, PG, PLD, STBA, SNV, TDG, UTX, WAT

AMC - ARAY, ACE, AMC, DOX, AMGN, AAPL, AMCC, T, BBOX, BXP, CLMS, CNI, CNMD, CYT, EA, ETH, EZPW, FTK, FFIC, FSL, ILMN, JNPR, LTXB, MRTN, MRCY, OTEX, POL, SBCF, SYK, TSS, TRMK, X, UMBF, VRTS, VMW, WSBC, WDC, YHOO

Wednesday :
BMO - ADPT, ADP, AHGP, ARLP, AEP, ABC, AME, ANTM, ACAT, BIIB, BA, BOKF, BAH, EAT, CRS, GIB, CVLT, CFR, CUBI, EMC, ENR, EVER, FMAO, FCAU, FCF, GD, GNTX, GWB, HAE, HES, HCBK, HTCH, IP, KNX, KLIC, MKTX, MKC, MDC, MWV, MDP, MTOR, BABY, NMM, NYCB, PJC, PCH, PX, PGR, RDWR, RYAM, ROK, ROL, RES, SEIC, SSE, SPIL, STJ, STM, TROW, TEL, TCK, TXT, TUP, UTL, WILN

AMC - ALB, ALGT, ATK, AMP, AZPN, AF, AVB, BRKL, CBT, CACI, CPT, CMO, CSII, CMPR, CRUS, CTXS, CLB, DRE, ESIO, EXTR, FB, FLEX, FTNT, GGP, GHL, HGR, HOLX, IBKC, IEX, ISIL, IGT, IRF, JEC, KRC, KEX, LRCX, LVS, MLNX, MEOH, MKSI, MUR, NFBK, PRXL, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, QTM, RKT, NOW, SHOR, SGI, SLG, STLD, SWFT, TER, TTEK, TSCO, TGI, UMPQ, VAR, VRTX, WSTC

Thursday :
BMO - ABT, APD, ALXN, BABA, ALLY, AIT, ALV, BAX, BEAV, BMS, BX, BC, CCMP, CAM, CRR, CAH, CSH, CELG, CHKP, CMS, CL, CMCO, COP, DHX, DOW, DST, EPD, F, GLOP, HOG, HAR, HP, HSY, HGG, IVZ, ITG, JBLU, LRN, KEM, KMT, LLL, LANC, LSTR, MMYT, HZO, MJN, MD, MTH, NDAQ, NOK, NOC, OXY, PENN, PSX, PSXP, POT, PHM, DGX, RTN, RGS, RCI, RCL, RGLD, RYL, SHW, SILC, SWK, TCB, TMO, TWC, TKR, VLO, VLY, VIAB, WCC, XEL, ZMH

AMC - ABAX ALGN AMZN AVNW EPAY BRCM BCR ELY CPHD CB COHR CPSI CTCT CORT DECK EMN EFII ELX FCB FICO FFBC GIMO GOOG GDOT GSIT HBI HLIT HA INFA INVN ISBC IXYS JDSU KFX LEGMTW MATW MBFI MCRL MTX MITK NBHC NFG NATI NGVC N NEU PCCC PKI PMCS PFG PFPT QLGC RHI SCSC SIGI SWI SFG SRDX SYNA TFSL TMST TUES UIS VR V WSFS

Friday : 
BMO - ABBV MO BZH BERY CVX CNX LLY BEN GHM IDXX IMGN IR INGR KCG LEA LM MGIC MAN MAMAT NWL NS OFG PSTB PFS SAIA SPG TY TSN WY WRX

AMC - TLMR

Summary

There are more earnings reports coming out this week from the big companies. Plus we also have quite a number of economic data releasing too such as FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

FYI the left wing has won the Greek election on Sunday. That would impact the Eurozone in terms of the austerity measures. Well I suppose this week is going to be another wild ride...  

Direction for Monday 26 Jan, 2015; Down

Direction for the week Monday 26 Jan to Friday 30 Jan, 2015; Down

2015 Daily Directional Accuracy: 4/14 (28.57%) 
2015 Weekly Directional Accuracy: 2/3 (66.67%)