Dow +113.35 at 16314.67, Nasdaq -47.98 at 4686.49, S&P -0.90 at 1931.35
Market had some upside in the early session and was kept in a very tight range. But eventually the sellers took over the control and brought the market down to the flat line. Somehow I don't see much strength coming from the bulls. Could this still sets the market up for some recovery next week? If we continue to see such weak performance, I highly doubt we would see a pullback.
Europe markets were generally up while Asia markets were mixed with China suffered a -2% drop and Japan saw about 1.7% gain.
Market Summary
Industry Watch
Strong: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Financials, Technology
Weak: Energy, Health Care, Materials
Other Market Moving Factor:
- Biotechnology weighs on broader market
- Dollar climbs overnight after Fed Chair Yellen says FOMC still expects a rate hike by the end of 2015
- Q2 GDP revised up to 3.9% from 3.7% in final estimate (Briefing.com consensus 3.7%)
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished a down week on a sloppy note with the S&P 500 (-0.1%) surrendering a solid intraday gain during the final two hours of action to end flat. The benchmark index locked in a weekly decline of 1.4% while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%) underperformed, ending the week lower by 2.9%. For its part, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%) ended Friday in the green as blue chips avoided volatility in the biotech space.
Equity indices spiked out of the gate in response to early morning strength in the futures market, which coincided with solid gains in Europe. To that point equity indices in France, Germany, and the UK rebounded after yesterday's struggles, gaining between 2.6% and 3.0% with automakers taking part in the rally. That rally lifted U.S. equity futures, but once the U.S. session began, the S&P 500 nestled into seven-point range that held into the afternoon.
The S&P 500 drifted near its high through the morning, supported by the financial sector (+1.5%) in particular. That heavily-weighted group held the lead after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen spoke last evening, reminding that the Fed is still intent on raising rates by year's end. Meanwhile, most other sectors also held solid intraday gains, but a late afternoon dive in the biotech industry group proved too large to be ignored by the market.
Interestingly, the Nasdaq Composite hinted at the afternoon weakness, steadily marching lower from its opening high throughout the day. Large cap biotechnology listings like Amgen (AMGN 138.60, -4.91), Celgene (CELG 108.45, -5.43), Gilead Sciences (GILD 100.14, -2.37), and Regeneron (REGN 491.43, -30.57) lost between 2.3% and 5.9% while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 310.24, -15.98) declined through the morning, accelerating its retreat into the afternoon to end lower by 4.9% after being down more than 6.0%.
For the week, the ETF sank 13.0%, suffering from a one-two punch that started with Monday's remarks from presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, who said she is interested in introducing price controls into the pharmaceutical industry. In addition, yesterday's reminder from Fed Chair Yellen about the potential rate hike by year's end may have also factored into the selling considering the industry has benefited greatly from rock-bottom rates. The weakness in biotechnology ensured a sharply lower finish for the health care sector (-2.9%), which surrendered nearly 6.0% for the week.
Elsewhere, the consumer discretionary sector (unch) displayed relative strength intraday, but fell victim to the afternoon selling, ending in-line with the market. That masked an 8.9% surge in the shares of Nike (NKE 125.00, +10.21) after the athletic apparel giant cruised past earnings/revenue estimates and reported higher than expected futures orders.
Interestingly, the afternoon dive in equities had essentially no impact on Treasuries as 10-yr note held a bit above its morning low into the close with its yield rising four basis points to 2.17%.
Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 23.26, -0.21) started the day with a two-point loss, but inched higher through the morning, indicating some investors used the early strength to increase their hedges. The VIX then accelerated its climb during the afternoon to end little changed as the slide in the S&P 500 invited wholesale demand for downside protection.
Today's affair invited above-average volume with more than XXX million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Economic data was limited to the third revision of Q2 GDP and the Michigan Sentiment Index:
- Second quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.9% in the third estimate from 3.7% while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to remain at 3.7%
- GDP increased 0.6% in Q1 2015
- Real final sales were revised up to 3.9% from 3.5%, representing the biggest quarterly gain since a 4.3% increase in Q3 2014
- Overall, the revisions in the third estimate were strong across the board. The only negative contributions came from inventories and net exports while all of the other sectors contributed more positively to growth in the third estimate
- The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 87.2 in the final September reading from 85.7 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a revision up to 87.0
- The Expectations Index was revised up to 78.2 from 76.4, but is still down from 83.4 in August
- The Current Conditions Index was revised up to 101.2 from 100.3, but remains down from 105.1 in August
On Monday, August Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core PCE data will be released at 8:30 ET while August Pending Home Sales will be announced at 10:00 ET.
- Nasdaq Composite -1.1% YTD
- S&P 500 -6.2% YTD
- Russell 2000 -6.8% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average -8.5% YTD
Week in Review: Roller-coaster Ride Continues
The stock market began the week on a higher note despite seeing some intraday volatility. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% while the Nasdaq Composite underperformed throughout the day, but was able to settle just above its flat line. Equity indices rallied out of the gate with the advance continuing through the first hour of action. All ten sectors took part in the opening move higher, but health care was quick to surrender its gain. The countercyclical group ended lower by 1.4% while biotechnology struggled mightily, sending the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 340.78, -15.98) lower by 4.5%. The biotechnology ETF lagged from the get-go, but the group accelerated its decline after presidential candidate Hillary Clinton sent out a tweet saying she is ready to unveil a plan that would target price gouging among specialty drug makers. Monday's selling dropped IBB below its 200-day moving average (347.36) to levels last seen at the start of September.
The market endured a rough trading day on Tuesday with the S&P 500 surrendering 1.2% while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.5%) underperformed. Equities spent the duration of the session in the red after gapping lower at the start. The opening stumble occurred in response to continued concerns about China's economic growth, which was manifested through weakness in commodity prices. Furthermore, European automakers struggled with Volkswagen plunging 19.8% to extend this week's loss to 34.7% after announcing the establishment of a EUR6.50 billion reserve in anticipation of costs associated with the Department of Justice probe into the company's diesel engines. European markets registered losses across the board with Germany's DAX tumbling 3.8%. Once the opening bell rang on Wall Street, the S&P 500 surrendered more than 15 points in short order and gave up another 20 into the afternoon. The index recovered about ten points during the final hour, but all ten sectors ended the day with losses.
The major averages registered their second consecutive retreat on Wednesday with the S&P 500 shedding 0.2% while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) ended just ahead. Overall, the midweek session was a choppy affair that saw the benchmark index spend some time on both sides of its flat line. That trading dynamic resulted from mixed performance among the ten sectors as three top-weighted groups—technology (+0.2%), financials (+0.1%), and health care (-0.1%)—displayed flashes of intraday strength while most of the remaining sectors struggled. Notably, commodity-sensitive energy (-1.4%) and materials (-2.1%) finished at the bottom of the leaderboard while the industrial sector (-0.7%) also kept the market under pressure. Altogether, the three sectors responded negatively to the overnight release of China's preliminary September Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which fell to a 6.5-year low of 47.0 from 47.3 (expected 47.5).
Thursday ended on a modestly lower note after equity indices erased the bulk of their early losses. The S&P 500 settled lower by 0.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) underperformed. The final standing represented a notable shift from the morning dynamic that saw equity indices gap down at the start amid selling in Europe. To that point, markets in France and Germany both lost near 2.0% apiece with automakers facing continued pressure. BMW was among the weakest performers in Germany, falling 5.2%, with company executives pushing back against insinuations that the company may have taken a page out of Volkswagen's playbook, saying they are ready to provide vehicles for testing on demand. To be sure, the losses among automakers were not the culprit behind the slide in Europe, but they represented another source of pressure in market that has been wrestling with persistent growth concerns surrounding China. Those concerns were echoed by Caterpillar (CAT 65.80, -4.40) as the manufacturer of heavy machinery lowered its guidance and announced plans to reduce its workforce by 4,000 to 5,000 people by the end of next year. Shares of CAT settled lower by 6.3%, keeping the industrial sector (-0.7%) among the laggards throughout the day.
Global Market
ASIA
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region closed an otherwise negative week on a mixed note, mulling the implications of a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. Japan’s Nikkei (+1.8%) was a notable upside mover, helped coincidentally by speculation that some soft consumer inflation data will lead the Bank of Japan to provide additional monetary policy stimulus.
Economic Data
- Japan
- August National CPI +0.2% year-over-year (expected -0.1%; prior +0.2%); Core CPI -0.1% year-over-year (expected -0.1%; prior 0.0%)
- September Tokyo CPI -0.1% year-over-year (expected -0.2%; prior +0.1%); Core CPI -0.2% (expected -0.2%; prior -0.1%)
- South Korea
- September Consumer Confidence 103.0 (prior 102.0)
- Singapore
- August Industrial Production -3.7% month-over-month (expected -0.2%; prior +0.7%); -7.0% year-over-year (expected -5.0%; prior -6.4%)
Equity Markets
- Japan’s Nikkei increased 1.8%, finishing on a strong note and closing at its high for the day. The rally was pinned in part on expectations the Bank of Japan will feel compelled to provide more policy stimulus following some weak consumer inflation readings. Gains were led by the consumer staples (+3.8%) and financials (+3.4%) sectors. Kansai Electric Power (+9.6%), Terumo Corp (+9.1%), and Mitsui Fudosan (+6.3%) were the best-performing issues. Sharp Corp (-5.8%), NGK Insulators (-4.6%), and Olympus Corp (-3.4%) were the worst-performing issues. Out of the 225 index members, 188 ended higher, 31 finished lower, and 6 were unchanged. For the week (which comprised two sessions), the Nikkei declined 1.1%.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng increased 0.4%, overcoming some early weakness with renewed buying interest in the afternoon session. Top gainers included Belle International Holdings (+5.5%), Galaxy Entertainment Group (+3.9%), and Sands China (+3.3%). Power Assets Holdings (-1.8%), China Merchants Holdings (-0.9%), and Lenovo Group (-0.8%) led a small group of losers. Out of the 50 index members, 37 ended higher, 11 finished lower, and 2 were unchanged. For the week, the Hang Seng declined 3.4%.
- China’s Shanghai Composite declined 1.6%, ending near its lows for the day. Reports indicate that trading volume was light and that the weakness was concentrated among transportation and infrastructure-related issues. For the week, the Shanghai Composite declined 0.2%.
- India’s Sensex: closed for holiday (Eid al-Adha)
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.6%. Losses were led by the energy (-2.0%), financials (-1.1%), and telecom services (-0.9%) sectors. Out of the 200 index members, 79 ended higher, 111 finished lower, and 10 were unchanged. For the week, the S&P/ASX 200 declined 2.5%.
- Regional advancers: Taiwan +0.1%, Malaysia +0.1%, Thailand +0.3%, Vietnam +0.1%
- Regional decliners: South Korea -0.2%, Indonesia -0.8%, Singapore -0.5%
- Closed for holiday: Philippines
FX
- USD/CNY -0.1% at 6.3745
- USD/INR +0.3% at 66.1563
- USD/JPY +0.7% at 120.95
EUROPE
Major European indices trade higher across the board amid broad support.
- Eurozone August M3 Money Supply +4.8% year-over-year (expected 5.3%; prior 5.3%) and August Private Sector Loans +1.0% year-over-year (expected 1.1%; last 0.9%)
- Italy’s August Wage Inflation 0.0% month-over-month, as expected; +1.2% year-over-year, as expected
- France’s September Consumer Confidence 97 (expected 94; last 94)
- Spain’s PPI -2.2% year-over-year (last -1.3%)
Closing Prices
- UK’s FTSE: + 2.6%
- Germany’s DAX: + 2.8%
- France’s CAC: + 3.1%
- Spain’s IBEX: + 2.5%
- Portugal’s PSI: + 2.0%
- Italy’s MIB Index: + 3.7%
- Irish Ovrl Index: + 1.9%
- Greece ASE General Index: + 1.1%
Macroeconomic Data
Economic Data
from Briefing.com
- GDP - Third Estimate : 3.9% vs 3.7% (Prior 3.7%)
- GDP Deflator - Third Estimate : 2.1% vs 2.1% (Prior 2.1%)
- Michigan Sentiment - Final : 87.2 vs 87.0 (Prior 85.7)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Highlights
- Second quarter GDP growth was revised up from 3.7% in the second estimate to 3.9% in the third estimate. The Briefing.com Consensus expected Q2 2015 GDP growth to remain at 3.7%.
- GDP increased 0.6% in Q1 2015.
- Real final sales were revised to 3.9% from 3.5%. That was the biggest quarterly gain since a 4.3% increase in Q3 2014.
Key Factors
- Overall, the revisions in the third estimate were strong across the board. The only negative contributing revisions came from inventories and net exports. All of the other sectors contributed more positively to second quarter growth in the third estimate than in the second estimate.
- Consumption growth was revised up to 3.6% in the third estimate from 3.1% in the second estimate. Goods consumption growth was left unrevised at 5.5%, which was the strongest gain since a 6.7% increase in Q2 2014. Services spending was revised up from 2.0% to 2.7% in the third estimate.
- A large downward revision to inventory growth (from $121.1 bln to $113.5 bln) reduced gross private domestic investment growth by 0.2 percentage points (from 5.2% to 5.0%). Fixed investment, however, was revised up to 5.2% from 4.1%.
- Nonresidential investment spending growth was revised to 4.1% from 3.2%. Spending growth on both structures (6.2% from 3.1%) and equipment (0.3% from -0.4%) was revised higher.
- Residential investment spending was also revised higher, from 7.8% to 9.3%.
- The net export deficit was revised up to $534.6 bln from $532.7 bln. The impact on growth, however, was negligible as the contribution to GDP growth fell to 0.18 percentage points from 0.23 percentage points.
- Government spending growth was left unrevised at 2.6%.
Big Picture
- GDP showed some notable improvement after the weak first quarter. Another upward revision to Q2 GDP will continue to stir the debate about when is the right time for the Federal reserve to begin its rate normalization process.
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT
Highlights
- The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 87.2 in the final September reading from 85.7 in the preliminary report. The index is still down from 91.9 in August. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the Consumer Sentiment Index to be revised up to 87.0.
Key Factors
- The Expectations Index was revised up to 78.2 from 76.4, but it is still down from 83.4 in August. In a similar fashion, the Current Conditions Index was revised up to 101.2 from 100.3, but down from 105.1 in August.
- A downward-trending stock market outweighed the expected benefits from improvements in labor market security and generally declining gasoline prices.
- The positive revision to consumer sentiment is unlikely to have a material impact on consumption trends. Spending relies on income. As long as income continues to grow, spending growth should follow.
Big Picture
- Consumer sentiment has little influence on consumption. As long as payroll levels continue to expand, the resulting income growth should keep consumption gains steady regardless of the monthly ebbs and flows in sentiment.
Market Internals
NYSE:
Lower Volumes than the day before – 873.8M vs 1031.8M
Decliners outpaced Advancers (adv/dec): 1457 / 1596
New Lows outpaced New Highs (highs/lows): 24 / 144
NASDAQ:
Higher Volumes than the day before – 2022.9M vs 1968.8M
Decliners outpaced Advancers (adv/dec): 946 / 1924
New Lows outpaced New Highs (highs/lows): 40 / 168
VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX)
23.62 +0.15 (+0.64%)
Technical Updates
Volume: 130,786,703 (above average of 112,625,213)
Range: 16,205.07 - 16,465.23
Range: 16,205.07 - 16,465.23
4,686.50 -47.98 (-1.01%)
Volume: 501,803,045 (above average of 457,560,378)
Volume: 501,803,045 (above average of 457,560,378)
Range: 4,659.48 - 4,785.22
1,931.34 -0.90 (-0.05%)
Volume: 691,099,000 (above average of 629,508,662)
Range: 1,921.50 - 1,952.89
DOW could not break above its resistance around 16,400-16,450 and the candlestick is reflecting a weak bullish pattern, this suggests that we might see some downside next week. NASDAQ was rejected by its 20MA and dropped all the way to its 61.8% Fib support level. Definitely not a bullish signal as it formed a bearish engulfing pattern. S&P was rejected at 1,955 and still continue with the downward trend. The 3 indices remain weak and that could mean more downside in the market. I think the significant support levels for the 3 indices in the short term are likely to be 15,650, 4,350 and 1,870 which coincides with the 100% Fib level.
Commodities
- The dollar index traded in positive territory, which helped weigh on commodities today
- Natural gas futures slid lower over and stayed in the red today.
- Copper basically traded in the same pattern
- Oct nat gas closed -1.2% today at $2.56/MMBtu, while Dec copper fell -0.2% to $2.28/lb.
- Oct crude oil rallied today, finishing +1.8% at $45.72/barrel
- Precious metals lost steam as well today
- Dec gold lost -0.7% to $1145.50/oz, while Dec silver fell -0.4% at $15.08/oz
Metals
- December gold ended today’s session $8.40 lower (-0.7%) at $1145.50/oz
- December silver closed today’s session $0.06 lower (-0.4%) at $15.08/oz
- December copper closed $0.02 lower (-0.8%) at $2.28/lb
Agriculture
- December corn closed $0.07 higher at $3.89/bushel
- December wheat closed $0.11 higher at $5.08/bushel
- November soybeans closed $0.21 higher at $8.89/bushel
- Sugar #11 closed $0.55 cents higher at 11.74 cents/lb
Energy
- November crude oil futures rose $0.78 (+1.8%) to $45.72/barrel
- October natural gas closed $0.03 lower (-1.2%) at $2.56/MMBtu
- RBOB Gasoline closed $0.03 lower at $1.35/gallon
- Heating oil futures closed flat at $1.55/gallon
Currencies
Greenback Gains Against All Majors
- The U.S. Dollar Index added 0.25% today to 96.23 after U.S. GDP growth for the second quarter was revised up to 3.9% from the previous estimate of 3.7%. The Briefing.com consensus was for 3.7%. Treasury yields were higher today on the back of Fed Chair Yellen's hawkish remarks Thursday afternoon, and that encouraged dollar buying as well
- EUR/USD: +0.10% to $1.1191
- In the eurozone, loans to households grew at an annual rate of 1% in August, improving upon the 0.9% growth in July
- Loans to businesses grew at 0.4% in August after rising 0.3% in July
- Spain's producer price index fell 2.2% in the year to August after falling 1.3% y/y in July
- In the eurozone, loans to households grew at an annual rate of 1% in August, improving upon the 0.9% growth in July
- GBP/USD: -0.26% to $1.5192
- USD/CHF: +0.19% to 0.9803
- USD/JPY: +0.38% to 120.64
- In Japan, the National Core CPI fell 0.1% in the year to August, in line with expectations but below the 0.0% change in July
- The Tokyo Core CPI fell 0.2% in the year to September, also in line with expectations. That inflation gauge declined 0.1% y/y in August
- USD/CAD: -0.01% to 1.3335
- Canada's budget surplus was CAD 150 mln in July against a CAD 1.23 bln deficit in July of 2014
- AUD/USD: +0.07% to $0.7022
- NZD/USD: +0.64% to $0.6374
Bonds
Treasury Yields Rise on Hawkish Fed and Stronger Growth
- U.S. Treasuries ended the session lower but off of their lows as an afternoon stock market sell-off encouraged safe-haven buying of government debt. Fed Chair Yellen spoke after the close on Thursday and said that most members of the FOMC believe that rate hike will be necessary before the end of 2015. The final estimate of second quarter GDP growth in the U.S. came out higher than expected at a 3.9% q/q seasonally-adjusted annualized rate
- Yield Check:
- 2-yr: -1 bp to 0.68%
- 5-yr: +2 bps to 1.47%
- 10-yr: +4 bps to 2.16%
- 30-yr: +4 bps to 2.95%
- News:
- The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the second quarter, higher than the previous report of 3.7%. The Briefing.com consensus was for growth of 3.7%
- Consumption growth was revised up to 3.6% in the third estimate from 3.1% in the second estimate. Goods consumption growth was left unrevised at 5.5%, which was the strongest gain since a 6.7% increase in Q2 2014. Services spending was revised up from 2.0% to 2.7% in the third estimate
- The GDP Deflator was 2.1%, in line with the Briefing.com consensus and the prior estimate
- The final estimate of September Michigan Sentiment beat expectations at 87.1 versus the preliminary reading of 85.7. The Briefing.com consensus was for 87.0. Michigan Sentiment was at 91.9 in August
- The Expectations Index was revised up to 78.2 from 76.4, but it is still down from 83.4 in August. In a similar fashion, the Current Conditions Index was revised up to 101.2 from 100.3, but down from 105.1 in August
- John Boehner, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, said that he will resign at the end of October
- The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the second quarter, higher than the previous report of 3.7%. The Briefing.com consensus was for growth of 3.7%
- Commodities:
- WTI crude: +1.47% to $45.47/bbl.
- Gold: -0.54% to $1,147.60/troy oz.
- Copper: -1.06% to $2.278/lb.
- Currencies:
- EUR/USD: +0.22% to $1.1203
- USD/JPY: +0.31% to 120.56
- Data Out Next Week:
- Monday: Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) (05:15 ET); August Personal Income and Personal Spending (08:30 ET); August PCE Prices – Core (08:30 ET); August Pending Home Sales (10:00 ET); Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) (12:30 ET); San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) (17:00 ET)
- Tuesday: July Case-Shiller 20-City Index (09:00 ET); September Consumer Confidence (10:00 ET)
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Index for the week ending 9/26 (07:00 ET); September ADP Employment Change (08:15 ET); New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) (08:35 ET); September Chicago PMI (09:45 ET); Crude Inventories for the week ending 9/26 (10:30 ET); St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non-FOMC voter) (15:10 ET)
- Thursday: September Challenger Job Cuts (07:30 ET); Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 9/26 and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending 9/19 (08:30 ET); September ISM Index (10:00 ET); August Construction Spending (10:00 ET); Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 9/26 (10:30 ET); San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) (14:30 ET); September Auto and Truck Sales (17:00 ET);
- Friday: September Employment Situation Report (08:30 ET); August Factory Orders (10:00 ET); Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren (non-FOMC voter) (08:30 ET); Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota (non-FOMC voter) is a panelist in "Should U.S. Monetary Policy have a Ternary Mandate?" (09:00 ET); St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non-FOMC voter) (09:00 ET); Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-FOMC voter) participates in panel, "Micro Prudential Versus Macro Prudential: Problems with Supervisory Control" (11:00 ET); Fed Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) (13:00 ET)
Treasury Yields:
- 2 Year Note 0.70% +0.03
- 5 Year Note 1.48% +0.04
- 10 Year Note 2.17% +0.04
- 30 Year Bond 2.96% +0.05
2/30 Spread: 226 bps ( +2 ) … 2/10 Spread: 147 bps ( +1 )
Preview for the week Monday 28 Sept to Friday 2 Oct, 2015
Economic Data
Monday (28 Sept) :
- Personal Income : 0.4% (Prior 0.4%)
- Personal Spending : 0.3% (Prior 0.3%)
- PCE Prices - Core : 0.1% (Prior 0.1%)
- Pending Home Sales : 0.5% (Prior 0.5%)
- Case-Shiller 20-city Index : 5.0% (Prior 5.0%)
- Consumer Confidence : 96.0 (Prior 101.5)
- MBA Mortgage Index : (Prior 13.9%)
- ADP Employment Change : 200K (Prior 190K)
- Chicago PMI : 52.7 (Prior 54.4)
- Crude Inventories : (Prior -1.925M)
- Challenger Job Cuts : (Prior 2.9%)
- Initial Claims : 270K (Prior 267K)
- Continuing Claims : 2248K (Prior 2242K)
- ISM Index : 50.6 (Prior 51.1)
- Construction Spending : 0.5% (Prior 0.7%)
- Natural Gas Inventories : (Prior 106 bcf)
- Auto Sales : (Prior 5.6M)
- Truck Sales : (Prior 8.5M)
- Nonfarm Payrolls : 205K (Prior 173K)
- Nonfarm Private Payrolls : 200K (Prior 140K)
- Unemployment Rate : 5.1% (Prior 5.1%)
- Hourly Earnings : 0.2% (Prior 0.3%)
- Average Workweek : 34.6 (Prior 34.6)
- Factory Orders : -1.0% (Prior 0.4%)
Earnings Highlights
Monday (28 Sept) :
BMO - CALM MTN
AMC - CMTL SNX
BMO - CALM MTN
AMC - CMTL SNX
Tuesday (29 Sept) :
BMO - AZZ CMN FGP IHS WBA
AMC - CUDA COST DMND LNDC
Wednesday (30 Sept) :
BMO - PAYX
AMC - None
Thursday (1 Oct) :
BMO - ATU BSET MKC
AMC - CAMP MU PRGS RLGT
Friday (2 Oct) :
BMO - None
AMC - None
Summary
Friday session was similar to Thursday (17th Sept) when Fed announced on keeping interest rate unchanged. I reckon short-term market movement is going to be more bearish from what we observed last week. Market remain weak and with sellers still in control, we should continue to see more selling.
Next week we will see a number of economic data releasing whereby some of them are potentially market moving catalyst. As we are also approaching the month of October, statistically speaking it is harder to be bullish right now.
Friday session was similar to Thursday (17th Sept) when Fed announced on keeping interest rate unchanged. I reckon short-term market movement is going to be more bearish from what we observed last week. Market remain weak and with sellers still in control, we should continue to see more selling.
Next week we will see a number of economic data releasing whereby some of them are potentially market moving catalyst. As we are also approaching the month of October, statistically speaking it is harder to be bullish right now.
Direction for Monday 28 Sept, 2015: Down
2015 Daily Directional Accuracy: 96/151 (63.58%)
2015 Weekly Directional Accuracy: 23/36 (63.89%)
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